Zagheni Emilio, Billari Francesco C, Manfredi Piero, Melegaro Alessia, Mossong Joel, Edmunds W John
Department of Demography, University of California, Berkeley, 2232 Piedmont Avenue, Berkeley, CA 94720-2120, USA.
Am J Epidemiol. 2008 Nov 1;168(9):1082-90. doi: 10.1093/aje/kwn220. Epub 2008 Sep 18.
Social contact patterns are a critical explanatory factor of the spread of close-contact infectious agents. Both indirect (via observed epidemiologic data) and direct (via diaries that record at-risk events) approaches to the measurement of contacts by age have been proposed in the literature. In this paper, the authors discuss the possibilities offered by time-use surveys to measure contact patterns and to explain observed seroprevalence profiles. The authors first develop a methodology to estimate time-of-exposure matrices, and then they apply it to time-use data for the United States (1987-2003). Finally, the authors estimate age-specific transmission parameters for varicella, commonly known as "chickenpox," from age-specific time-of-exposure and seroprevalence data (United States, 1988-1994). The estimated time-of-exposure matrix reveals a strong element of assortativeness by age. In addition, there are peaks of exposure between people who were born one generation apart (i.e., parents and their children). Models based on the estimated age-specific transmission parameters fit the observed patterns of infection of endemically circulating varicella in a satisfactory way. The availability of time-use data for a large number of countries and their potential to supplement contact surveys make the methods developed extremely valuable and suitable for implementation in several different contexts.
社交接触模式是密切接触传染性病原体传播的关键解释因素。文献中已经提出了通过年龄测量接触的间接方法（通过观察到的流行病学数据）和直接方法（通过记录危险事件的日记）。在本文中，作者讨论了时间使用调查在测量接触模式和解释观察到的血清流行率概况方面提供的可能性。作者首先开发了一种估计暴露时间矩阵的方法，然后将其应用于美国的时间使用数据（1987 - 2003年）。最后，作者根据特定年龄的暴露时间和血清流行率数据（美国，1988 - 1994年）估计水痘（俗称“水痘”）的特定年龄传播参数。估计的暴露时间矩阵显示出按年龄分类的强烈要素。此外，在相隔一代出生的人（即父母和他们的孩子）之间存在暴露高峰。基于估计的特定年龄传播参数的模型以令人满意的方式拟合了观察到的地方性传播水痘的感染模式。大量国家的时间使用数据的可用性及其补充接触调查的潜力使得所开发的方法非常有价值，并且适合在几种不同的情况下实施。
