Modelling and Economics Unit, Health Protection Agency, Centre for Infections, London, UK.
Epidemics. 2011 Sep;3(3-4):143-51. doi: 10.1016/j.epidem.2011.04.001. Epub 2011 May 13.
Knowledge of the determinants of infectious disease transmission is a public health priority as it allows the design of optimal control strategies for endemic or emerging infections. We analyse a detailed dataset on contact patterns across five European countries and use available serological profiles for varicella and parvovirus B19 infections to identify the types of contact that may be most relevant for transmission. We show that models informed by contact data fit well the observed serological profiles of both infections. We find that intimate types of contacts explain the pattern of acquisition of serological markers by age better than other types of social contacts. We observe similar patterns in each of the countries analysed, suggesting that there are consistent biological mechanisms at work.
了解传染病传播的决定因素是公共卫生的当务之急，因为它可以为地方性或新出现的感染设计最佳的控制策略。我们分析了来自五个欧洲国家的详细接触模式数据集，并利用现有的水痘和细小病毒 B19 感染血清学特征来确定可能与传播最相关的接触类型。我们发现，基于接触数据的模型很好地拟合了这两种感染的观察到的血清学特征。我们发现，亲密类型的接触比其他类型的社会接触更能解释血清标志物随年龄增长的获取模式。我们在分析的每个国家都观察到类似的模式，这表明存在一致的生物学机制在起作用。
