Mouza A M
Technological Educational Institute of Serres, Department of Business Administration, Terma Magnisias, 621 24, Serres, Greece.
Hippokratia. 2008 Jan;12(1):59-64.
In this paper we present a model to evaluate the effect of certain majors socioeconomic factors (such as alcohol and fat consumption, cigarettes smoking, unemployment rate as a proxy for uncertainty which results frustration, number of passenger cars as a proxy for physical exercise and per capita GDP as a proxy for nutrition quality), to the ischemic mortality rate. Since the existing research works on this field, suffer from the proper model testing, we analytically present all the tests necessary to justify the reliability of the result obtained. For this purpose, after specifying and estimating the model, we applied the specification error test, the linearity, multicollinearity and heteroscedasticity tests, the autocorrelation and stability tests and the ARCH effect test. Finally, we present the aggregate effect of the above socioeconomic factors. In brief, we found that an increase of cigarettes smoked, of fat and alcohol consumption and the number of passenger cars will result to a relevant increase regarding mortality. The latter one is also affected by the changes in unemployment rate. On the other hand, an increase of personal disposable income may negatively affect mortality, by almost the same portion.
在本文中,我们提出了一个模型,用于评估某些主要社会经济因素(如酒精和脂肪消费、吸烟、作为不确定性(导致沮丧)代理指标的失业率、作为体育锻炼代理指标的乘用车数量以及作为营养质量代理指标的人均国内生产总值)对缺血性死亡率的影响。由于该领域现有的研究工作存在适当的模型检验问题,我们分析性地给出了所有必要的检验,以证明所获结果的可靠性。为此,在确定并估计模型之后,我们应用了设定误差检验、线性、多重共线性和异方差性检验、自相关和稳定性检验以及ARCH效应检验。最后,我们给出了上述社会经济因素的综合影响。简而言之,我们发现吸烟量、脂肪和酒精消费量以及乘用车数量的增加会导致死亡率相应上升。后者也受到失业率变化的影响。另一方面,个人可支配收入的增加可能会对死亡率产生几乎相同程度的负面影响。