Willis Charles G, Ruhfel Brad, Primack Richard B, Miller-Rushing Abraham J, Davis Charles C
Department of Organismic and Evolutionary Biology, Harvard University Herbaria, 22 Divinity Avenue, Cambridge, MA 02138, USA.
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2008 Nov 4;105(44):17029-33. doi: 10.1073/pnas.0806446105. Epub 2008 Oct 27.
Climate change has led to major changes in the phenology (the timing of seasonal activities, such as flowering) of some species but not others. The extent to which flowering-time response to temperature is shared among closely related species might have important consequences for community-wide patterns of species loss under rapid climate change. Henry David Thoreau initiated a dataset of the Concord, Massachusetts, flora that spans approximately 150 years and provides information on changes in species abundance and flowering time. When these data are analyzed in a phylogenetic context, they indicate that change in abundance is strongly correlated with flowering-time response. Species that do not respond to temperature have decreased greatly in abundance, and include among others anemones and buttercups [Ranunculaceae pro parte (p.p.)], asters and campanulas (Asterales), bluets (Rubiaceae p.p.), bladderworts (Lentibulariaceae), dogwoods (Cornaceae), lilies (Liliales), mints (Lamiaceae p.p.), orchids (Orchidaceae), roses (Rosaceae p.p.), saxifrages (Saxifragales), and violets (Malpighiales). Because flowering-time response traits are shared among closely related species, our findings suggest that climate change has affected and will likely continue to shape the phylogenetically biased pattern of species loss in Thoreau's woods.
气候变化已导致某些物种的物候（季节性活动的时间，如开花时间）发生重大变化，但其他物种则未受影响。在快速气候变化下，密切相关物种间开花时间对温度的响应程度，可能对群落范围内物种丧失的模式产生重要影响。亨利·戴维·梭罗创建了一个关于马萨诸塞州康科德植物群的数据集，该数据集跨度约150年，提供了物种丰度和开花时间变化的信息。当在系统发育背景下分析这些数据时，结果表明丰度变化与开花时间响应密切相关。对温度无响应的物种丰度大幅下降，其中包括银莲花属和毛茛属植物（毛茛科部分物种）、紫菀属和风铃草属植物（菊目）、蓝花琉璃繁缕属植物（茜草科部分物种）、狸藻属植物（狸藻科）、山茱萸属植物（山茱萸科）、百合属植物（百合目）、薄荷属植物（唇形科部分物种）、兰科植物、蔷薇属植物（蔷薇科部分物种）、虎耳草属植物（虎耳草目）以及堇菜属植物（金虎尾目）。由于开花时间响应特征在密切相关物种间具有共性，我们的研究结果表明，气候变化已经影响并可能继续塑造梭罗树林中物种丧失的系统发育偏向模式。
