Osteoporosis Policlinic, Inselspital, Bern University Hospital and University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland.
Osteoporos Int. 2009 Jul;20(7):1131-40. doi: 10.1007/s00198-008-0779-8. Epub 2008 Oct 31.
Remaining lifetime and absolute 10-year probabilities for osteoporotic fractures were determined by gender, age, and BMD values. Remaining lifetime probability at age 50 years was 20.2% in men and 51.3% in women and increased with advancing age and decreasing BMD. The study validates the elements required to populate a Swiss-specific FRAX model.
Switzerland belongs to high-risk countries for osteoporosis. Based on demographic projections, burden will still increase. We assessed remaining lifetime and absolute 10-year probabilities for osteoporotic fractures by gender, age and BMD in order to populate FRAX algorithm for Switzerland.
Osteoporotic fracture incidence was determined from national epidemiological data for hospitalised fractured patients from the Swiss Federal Office of Statistics in 2000 and results of a prospective Swiss cohort with almost 5,000 fractured patients in 2006. Validated BMD-associated fracture risk was used together with national death incidence and risk tables to determine remaining lifetime and absolute 10-year fracture probabilities for hip and major osteoporotic (hip, spine, distal radius, proximal humerus) fractures.
Major osteoporotic fractures incidence was 773 and 2,078 per 100,000 men and women aged 50 and older. Corresponding remaining lifetime probabilities at age 50 were 20.2% and 51.3%. Hospitalisation for clinical spine, distal radius, and proximal humerus fractures reached 25%, 30% and 50%, respectively. Absolute 10-year probability of osteoporotic fracture increased with advancing age and decreasing BMD and was higher in women than in men.
This study validates the elements required to populate a Swiss-specific FRAX model, a country at highest risk for osteoporotic fractures.
通过性别、年龄和 BMD 值确定骨质疏松性骨折的剩余预期寿命和绝对 10 年概率。男性在 50 岁时的剩余预期寿命为 20.2%，女性为 51.3%，并随着年龄的增长和 BMD 的降低而增加。该研究验证了为瑞士 FRAX 模型赋值所需的要素。
瑞士属于骨质疏松症高危国家。根据人口预测，其负担仍将增加。我们评估了性别、年龄和 BMD 对骨质疏松性骨折的剩余预期寿命和绝对 10 年概率的影响，以便为瑞士 FRAX 算法赋值。
骨质疏松性骨折的发生率是根据瑞士联邦统计局 2000 年全国因骨折住院患者的流行病学数据和 2006 年一项近 5000 名骨折患者的前瞻性瑞士队列研究结果确定的。使用经过验证的与 BMD 相关的骨折风险，结合全国死亡发生率和风险表，确定髋部和主要骨质疏松性（髋部、脊柱、远端桡骨、近端肱骨）骨折的剩余预期寿命和绝对 10 年骨折概率。
50 岁及以上男性和女性的主要骨质疏松性骨折发生率分别为每 100,000 人 773 例和 2,078 例。相应的 50 岁时的剩余预期寿命分别为 20.2%和 51.3%。因临床脊柱、远端桡骨和近端肱骨骨折住院的比例分别达到 25%、30%和 50%。骨质疏松性骨折的绝对 10 年概率随年龄增长和 BMD 降低而增加，女性高于男性。
这项研究验证了为瑞士 FRAX 模型赋值所需的要素，瑞士是骨质疏松性骨折风险最高的国家之一。
