Mishra Sandeep, Lalumière Martin
Department of Psychology, University of Lethbridge, 4401 University Drive Lethbridge, Alberta, Canada T1K3M4.
Soc Sci Med. 2009 Jan;68(1):39-48. doi: 10.1016/j.socscimed.2008.09.060. Epub 2008 Nov 1.
Crime rates dropped unexpectedly and dramatically in the 1990s in Canada and the USA. The decline was not restricted to particular types of crime, the particular methodologies of crime reports, demographic characteristics, or geographical areas. Psychological studies of individuals have suggested a link between crime and different types of risky behavior (e.g., dangerous driving, unsafe sex, substance use). Based on this link, we examined whether national rates of various risky behaviors declined in the 1990s, and whether rates of crime and risky behavior covary over time. Several American and Canadian databases reporting annual or biennial data on risky behavior indicators were examined. Results indicate that most of the risky behavior indicators in the domains of violent behavior, accidents, sexual behavior, and school dropout declined in the 1990s. Furthermore, time series analyses suggest that rates of various risky behaviors tend to covary with homicide over long periods of time. An important exception to these results is substance use in various contexts. We discuss some theoretical implications of the results.
20世纪90年代,加拿大和美国的犯罪率意外大幅下降。这种下降并不局限于特定类型的犯罪、犯罪报告的特定方法、人口特征或地理区域。对个体的心理学研究表明,犯罪与不同类型的危险行为(如危险驾驶、不安全的性行为、物质使用)之间存在联系。基于这种联系,我们研究了20世纪90年代各种危险行为的全国发生率是否下降,以及犯罪率和危险行为发生率是否随时间变化而共同变化。我们研究了几个报告危险行为指标年度或两年期数据的美国和加拿大数据库。结果表明,20世纪90年代,暴力行为、事故、性行为和辍学等领域的大多数危险行为指标都有所下降。此外,时间序列分析表明,长期来看,各种危险行为的发生率往往与杀人罪发生率共同变化。这些结果的一个重要例外是在各种情况下的物质使用。我们讨论了这些结果的一些理论意义。