Maling T, Diggle A J, Thackray D J, Siddique K H M, Jones R A C
Centre for Legumes in Mediterranean Agriculture, The University of Western Australia, Crawley, Australia.
Phytopathology. 2008 Dec;98(12):1280-90. doi: 10.1094/PHYTO-98-12-1280.
A hybrid mechanistic/statistical model was developed to predict vector activity and epidemics of vector-borne viruses spreading from external virus sources to an adjacent crop. The pathosystem tested was Bean yellow mosaic virus (BYMV) spreading from annually self-regenerating, legume-based pastures to adjacent crops of narrow-leafed lupin (Lupinus angustifolius) in the winter-spring growing season in a region with a Mediterranean-type environment where the virus persists over summer within dormant seed of annual clovers. The model uses a combination of daily rainfall and mean temperature during late summer and early fall to drive aphid population increase, migration of aphids from pasture to lupin crops, and the spread of BYMV. The model predicted time of arrival of aphid vectors and resulting BYMV spread successfully for seven of eight datasets from 2 years of field observations at four sites representing different rainfall and geographic zones of the southwestern Australian grainbelt. Sensitivity analysis was performed to determine the relative importance of the main parameters that describe the pathosystem. The hybrid mechanistic/statistical approach used created a flexible analytical tool for vector-mediated plant pathosystems that made useful predictions even when field data were not available for some components of the system.
开发了一种混合机理/统计模型，以预测从外部病毒源传播到相邻作物的媒介活动及媒介传播病毒的流行情况。所测试的病理系统是豆黄花叶病毒（BYMV），在具有地中海型环境的地区，该病毒在冬春生长季节从每年自我更新的豆科牧草传播到相邻的窄叶羽扇豆（Lupinus angustifolius）作物上，且该病毒在一年生三叶草的休眠种子中度过夏季。该模型结合夏末和秋初的日降雨量和平均温度，来推动蚜虫数量增加、蚜虫从牧场迁移到羽扇豆作物以及BYMV的传播。对于来自澳大利亚西南部谷物带四个代表不同降雨和地理区域的地点的两年实地观测的八个数据集中的七个，该模型成功预测了蚜虫媒介的到达时间以及由此导致的BYMV传播。进行了敏感性分析，以确定描述病理系统的主要参数的相对重要性。所采用的混合机理/统计方法为媒介介导的植物病理系统创建了一个灵活的分析工具，即使在系统的某些组成部分没有实地数据的情况下，该工具也能做出有用的预测。
