Frisén M, Andersson E, Schiöler L
Statistical Research Unit, Department of Economics, University of Gothenburg, and Department of Occupational and Environmental Medicine, Sahlgrenska University Hospital, SE 40530, Gothenburg, Sweden.
Stat Med. 2009 Feb 1;28(3):476-93. doi: 10.1002/sim.3483.
Outbreak detection is of interest in connection with several diseases and syndromes. The aim is to detect the progressive increase in the incidence as soon as possible after the onset of the outbreak. A semiparametric method is applied to Swedish data on tularaemia and influenza. The method is constructed to detect a change from a constant level to a monotonically increasing incidence. If seasonal effects are present, the residuals from a model incorporating these can be used. The properties of the method are evaluated by application to Swedish data on tularaemia and influenza and by simulations. The suggested method is compared with subjective judgments as well as with other algorithms. The conclusion is that the method works well. A user-friendly computer program is described.
疫情检测与多种疾病和综合征相关。其目的是在疫情爆发后尽快检测出发病率的逐步上升。一种半参数方法应用于瑞典关于兔热病和流感的数据。该方法旨在检测从恒定水平到发病率单调上升的变化。如果存在季节效应，可以使用包含这些效应的模型的残差。通过应用于瑞典兔热病和流感数据以及模拟来评估该方法的特性。将所建议的方法与主观判断以及其他算法进行比较。结论是该方法效果良好。描述了一个用户友好的计算机程序。
