Skog L, Hauska H, Linde A
Division of Geoinformatics, Royal Institute of Technology, Stockholm, Sweden.
Euro Surveill. 2008 Dec 4;13(49):19056.
Using data from a study of the 1889-90 Russian flu in Sweden, this article describes how the application of Geographic Information System (GIS) may improve analyses and presentation of surveillance data. In 1890, immediately after the outbreak, all Swedish doctors were asked to provide information about the start and the peak of the epidemic, and the total number of cases in their region and to fill in a questionnaire on the number, sex and age of infected persons in the households they visited. General answers on the epidemic were received from 398 physicians and data on individual patients were available for more than 32,600 persons. These historic data were reanalysed with the use of GIS, in map documents and in animated video sequences, to depict the onset, the intensity and the spread of the disease over time. A stack diagram with the observations grouped into one week intervals was produced to depict the spread in one figure only. To better understand how the influenza was disseminated, Thiessen polygons were created around 70 places reported on by the doctors. Having prepared GIS layers of the population (divided into parishes), estimations could be made for all the Swedish parishes on the number of infected persons for each of the 15 weeks studied. The described models may be useful in current epidemiological investigations, as well.
本文利用瑞典一项关于1889 - 1890年俄罗斯流感研究的数据，描述了地理信息系统（GIS）的应用如何改进监测数据的分析和呈现。1890年疫情爆发后，瑞典所有医生被要求提供有关疫情开始和高峰期的信息、所在地区的病例总数，并填写一份关于他们所走访家庭中感染者数量、性别和年龄的问卷。收到了398名医生关于疫情的总体答复，并有超过32600人的个体患者数据。利用GIS对这些历史数据进行重新分析，以地图文件和动态视频序列的形式描绘疾病随时间的发病情况、强度和传播情况。制作了一个堆叠图，将观察结果按一周的间隔分组，仅用一个图形来描绘传播情况。为了更好地了解流感是如何传播的，在医生报告的70个地点周围创建了泰森多边形。在准备好人口的GIS图层（按教区划分）后，就可以对瑞典所有教区在所研究的15周内每周的感染人数进行估计。所描述的模型在当前的流行病学调查中可能也很有用。
