The relationship between population growth and elderly suicide rates: a cross-national study.

BACKGROUND

Elderly suicide rates are associated with the elderly population size, the proportion of elderly in the general population and the elderly dependency ratio.

METHODS

A cross-national study examining the "a priori" hypothesis that the relationship between elderly suicide rates and average annual population growth rates would be curvilinear (U-shaped curve) fitting the quadratic equation y = a + bx + cx2 (where y is the elderly suicide rate, x is the population growth rate and a, b and c are constants) was conducted using data from the World Health Organization and the United Nations.

RESULTS

There was a significant curvilinear (U-shaped curve) relationship between elderly suicide rates and average annual population growth rates fitting the above quadratic equation.

CONCLUSIONS

A theoretical model with three sequential stages incorporating population growth, the elderly population size, the proportion of elderly in the general population, life expectancy and birth rates was proposed to explain the findings. Caution should be exercised in the application of this model because of the cross-sectional and ecological study design whereby the findings are subject to ecological fallacy and require rigourous testing in within-country longitudinal studies over time.