Short-term criminal pathways: type and seriousness of offense and recidivism.

In this longitudinal study, the authors investigated short-term criminal pathways of children and early adolescents starting under the age of 14 years and the extent to which characteristics of the 1st crime influenced criminal pathways. Participants were 387 juvenile offenders with a mean age of 12.1 years (SD = 2.05 years). The authors followed all participants in the police systems for 2 years to get insight into the crimes that they committed. Then, 2 years after the 1st police contact, 46.5% of these offenders were still considered 1st offenders, and 53.5% had become recidivists. Most of the children began their criminal pathway with less serious covert crimes. Further analyses showed that when the 1st crime was a serious overt crime, the risk of recidivism within 1 year increased. The likelihood of committing a serious overt crime increased with age. The results supported the authors' hypotheses in that juvenile offenders who committed both overt and covert delinquent acts had the highest rates of offense, were more aggressive, and committed more serious offenses. Furthermore, children who committed only overt crimes developed even more serious criminal pathways.