Mulder Eva, Brand Eddy, Bullens Ruud, van Marle Hjalmar
Department of Psychiatry, Erasmus University Medical Center, Rotterdam, Netherlands.
Int J Offender Ther Comp Criminol. 2011 Feb;55(1):118-35. doi: 10.1177/0306624X09356683. Epub 2010 Feb 24.
This study was aimed at finding risk factors that predict both overall recidivism and severity of recidivism in serious juvenile offenders. Seventy static and dynamic risk factors associated with family characteristics, peers, psychopathology, substance abuse, psychological factors, and behavior during treatment were assessed with the Juvenile Forensic Profile in a sample of 728 juvenile offenders. Official reconviction data were used to register recidivism with a minimum time at risk of 2 years. Severity of offending was categorized according to the maximum sentence for the offense committed combined with expert opinion. Several risk factors for recidivism were found: past criminal behavior (number of past offenses, young age at first offense, unknown victim of past offenses), conduct disorder, family risk factors (poor parenting skills, criminal behavior in the family, a history of physical and emotional abuse), involvement with criminal peers, and lack of treatment adherence (aggression during treatment, lack of coping strategies). Having an unknown victim in past offenses, criminal behavior in the family, lack of treatment adherence, and lack of positive coping strategies were predictive of serious (violent) recidivism. The results are discussed in terms of their use for risk assessment and in improving treatment effect. Targeting poor parenting skills, involvement in criminal environment, lack of treatment adherence, and problematic coping strategies should reduce the severity of recidivism.
本研究旨在找出能预测严重青少年罪犯总体再犯率及再犯严重程度的风险因素。在728名青少年罪犯样本中，使用青少年法医概况评估了与家庭特征、同伴、精神病理学、药物滥用、心理因素及治疗期间行为相关的70个静态和动态风险因素。官方再定罪数据用于记录再犯情况，最短风险期为2年。犯罪严重程度根据所犯罪行的最高刑期并结合专家意见进行分类。发现了几个再犯的风险因素：过去的犯罪行为（过去犯罪次数、首次犯罪时年龄较小、过去犯罪的受害者不明）、品行障碍、家庭风险因素（养育技能差、家庭中的犯罪行为、身体和情感虐待史）、与犯罪同伴交往以及缺乏治疗依从性（治疗期间的攻击行为、缺乏应对策略）。过去犯罪的受害者不明、家庭中的犯罪行为、缺乏治疗依从性以及缺乏积极的应对策略可预测严重（暴力）再犯。从其在风险评估中的用途以及改善治疗效果方面对结果进行了讨论。针对养育技能差、卷入犯罪环境、缺乏治疗依从性和有问题的应对策略采取措施应可降低再犯的严重程度。
