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基于反应时间以及感知和知识方面的信心进行概率评估。

Probability assessment with response times and confidence in perception and knowledge.

作者信息

Petrusic William M, Baranski Joseph V

机构信息

Department of Psychology, Carleton University, 1125 Colonel By Drive, Ottawa, Ontario, Canada K1S 5B6.

出版信息

Acta Psychol (Amst). 2009 Feb;130(2):103-14. doi: 10.1016/j.actpsy.2008.10.008. Epub 2008 Dec 10.

DOI:10.1016/j.actpsy.2008.10.008
PMID:19081556
Abstract

In both a perceptual and a general knowledge comparison task, participants categorized the time they took to decide, selecting one of six categories ordered from "Slow" to Fast". Subsequently, they rated confidence on a six-category scale ranging from "50%" to "100%". Participants were able to accurately scale their response times thus enabling the treatment of the response time (RT) categories as potential confidence categories. Probability assessment analyses of RTs revealed indices of over/underconfidence, calibration, and resolution, each subject to the "hard-easy" effect, comparable to those obtained with the actual confidence ratings. However, in both the perceptual and knowledge domains, resolution (i.e., the ability to use the confidence categories to distinguish correct from incorrect decisions) was significantly better with confidence ratings than with RT categorization. Generally, comparable results were obtained with scaling of the objective RTs, although subjective categorization of RTs provided probability assessment indices superior to those obtained from objective RTs. Taken together, the findings do not support the view that confidence arises from a scaling of decision time.

摘要

在一项知觉和常识比较任务中,参与者对自己做出决定所花费的时间进行分类,从“慢”到“快”六个类别中选择其一。随后,他们在从“50%”到“100%”的六分量表上对信心进行评分。参与者能够准确地对自己的反应时间进行分级,从而能够将反应时间(RT)类别视为潜在的信心类别。对反应时间的概率评估分析揭示了过度/不足自信、校准和分辨力的指标,每个指标都受到“难-易”效应的影响,与通过实际信心评分获得的指标相当。然而,在知觉和知识领域,信心评分的分辨力(即使用信心类别区分正确和错误决定的能力)明显优于反应时间分类。一般来说,对客观反应时间进行分级也得到了类似的结果,尽管反应时间的主观分类提供的概率评估指标优于从客观反应时间获得的指标。综上所述,这些发现不支持信心源于对决策时间进行分级的观点。

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