McCall Patricia L, Parker Karen F, MacDonald John M
Department of Sociology and Anthropology, Box 8107, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC 27695-8107, USA.
Soc Sci Res. 2008 Sep;37(3):721-35. doi: 10.1016/j.ssresearch.2007.09.007.
After reaching their highest levels of the 20th century, homicide rates in the United States declined precipitously in the early 1990s. This study examines a number of factors that might have contributed to both the sharp increase and decline in homicide rates. We use a pooled cross-sectional time series model to assess the relationship between changes in structural conditions and the change in homicide rates over four decennial time points (1970, 1980, 1990, and 2000). We assess the extent to which structural covariates associated with social, economic and political conditions commonly used in homicide research (e.g., urban decay, poverty, and the weakening of family and social bonds) are related to the change in homicide rates. Along with these classic covariates, we incorporate some contemporary explanations (e.g., imprisonment rates and drug trafficking) that have been proposed to address the recent decline in urban homicide rates. Our results indicate that both classic and contemporary explanations are related to homicide trends over the last three decades of the 20th century. Specifically, changes in resource deprivation and in the relative size of the youth population are associated with changes in the homicide rate across these time points. Increased imprisonment is also significantly related to homicide changes. These findings lead us to conclude that efforts to understand the changing nature of homicide will require serious consideration, if not integration, of classic and contemporary explanations.
在达到20世纪的最高水平之后，美国的凶杀率在20世纪90年代初急剧下降。本研究考察了一些可能导致凶杀率急剧上升和下降的因素。我们使用一个混合横截面时间序列模型，来评估结构条件的变化与四个十年时间点（1970年、1980年、1990年和2000年）凶杀率变化之间的关系。我们评估了与凶杀研究中常用的社会、经济和政治条件相关的结构协变量（如城市衰败、贫困以及家庭和社会纽带的削弱）在多大程度上与凶杀率的变化相关。除了这些经典协变量，我们还纳入了一些当代的解释（如监禁率和毒品贩运），这些解释是为了解释近期城市凶杀率的下降而提出的。我们的结果表明，经典解释和当代解释都与20世纪最后三十年的凶杀趋势相关。具体而言，资源匮乏和青年人口相对规模的变化与这些时间点上凶杀率的变化相关。监禁率的上升也与凶杀案的变化显著相关。这些发现使我们得出结论，要理解凶杀案性质的变化，即使不将经典解释和当代解释进行整合，也需要认真考虑它们。
