Frame D J, Aina T, Christensen C M, Faull N E, Knight S H E, Piani C, Rosier S M, Yamazaki K, Yamazaki Y, Allen M R
Smith School for Enterprise and the Environment, 75 George Street, Oxford OX1 2BQ, UK.
Philos Trans A Math Phys Eng Sci. 2009 Mar 13;367(1890):855-70. doi: 10.1098/rsta.2008.0240.
Perturbed physics experiments are among the most comprehensive ways to address uncertainty in climate change forecasts. In these experiments, parameters and parametrizations in atmosphere-ocean general circulation models are perturbed across ranges of uncertainty, and results are compared with observations. In this paper, we describe the largest perturbed physics climate experiment conducted to date, the British Broadcasting Corporation (BBC) climate change experiment, in which the physics of the atmosphere and ocean are changed, and run in conjunction with a forcing ensemble designed to represent uncertainty in past and future forcings, under the A1B Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) climate change scenario.
扰动物理实验是应对气候变化预测不确定性的最全面方法之一。在这些实验中，大气 - 海洋环流模型中的参数和参数化在不确定性范围内受到扰动，并将结果与观测值进行比较。在本文中，我们描述了迄今为止进行的最大规模的扰动物理气候实验，即英国广播公司（BBC）气候变化实验，其中大气和海洋的物理特性发生了变化，并与一个旨在代表过去和未来强迫不确定性的强迫集合一起运行，该实验基于排放情景特别报告（SRES）A1B气候变化情景。
