Hermanson Leon, Sutton Rowan T
Department of Meteorology, Walker Institute, University of Reading, Reading RG6 6BB, UK.
Philos Trans A Math Phys Eng Sci. 2009 Mar 13;367(1890):913-6. doi: 10.1098/rsta.2008.0181.
In this paper, the predictability of climate arising from ocean heat content (OHC) anomalies is investigated in the HadCM3 coupled atmosphere-ocean model. An ensemble of simulations of the twentieth century are used to provide initial conditions for a case study. The case study consists of two ensembles started from initial conditions with large differences in regional OHC in the North Atlantic, the Southern Ocean and parts of the West Pacific. Surface temperatures and precipitation are on average not predictable beyond seasonal time scales, but for certain initial conditions there may be longer predictability. It is shown that, for the case study examined here, some aspects of tropical precipitation, European surface temperatures and North Atlantic sea-level pressure are potentially predictable 2 years ahead. Predictability also exists in the other case studies, but the climate variables and regions, which are potentially predictable, differ. This work was done as part of the Grid for Coupled Ensemble Prediction (GCEP) eScience project.
本文在HadCM3大气-海洋耦合模型中研究了海洋热含量（OHC）异常引发的气候可预测性。利用20世纪的一组模拟结果为一个案例研究提供初始条件。该案例研究包括两个系综，它们从北大西洋、南大洋和西太平洋部分地区区域OHC差异很大的初始条件开始。平均而言，地表温度和降水在季节时间尺度之外无法预测，但对于某些初始条件可能具有更长时间的可预测性。结果表明，对于此处所研究的案例研究，热带降水、欧洲地表温度和北大西洋海平面气压的某些方面可能提前2年具有可预测性。在其他案例研究中也存在可预测性，但潜在可预测的气候变量和区域有所不同。这项工作是作为耦合系综预测网格（GCEP）电子科学项目的一部分完成的。
