Groot Jeroen C J, Rossing Walter A H, Tichit Muriel, Turpin Nadine, Jellema André, Baudry Jacques, Verburg Peter H, Doyen Luc, van de Ven Gerrie W J
Biological Farming Systems Group, Wageningen Univeristy, The Netherlands.
J Environ Manage. 2009 May;90 Suppl 2:S147-60. doi: 10.1016/j.jenvman.2008.11.030. Epub 2009 Jan 10.
In this paper a set of criteria is proposed for the evaluation of the potential contribution of modelling tools to strengthening the multifunctionality of agriculture. The four main areas of evaluation are (1) policy relevance, (2) the temporal resolution and scope, (3) the degree to which spatial and socio-institutional scales and heterogeneity are addressed and (4) the level of integration in the assessment of scientific dimensions and of the multiple functions of agriculture. The evaluative criteria are applied to the portfolio of modelling approaches developed and applied in a joint project of the French research institute INRA and the Dutch Wageningen University & Research Centre. The CLUE-S model focuses on prediction of changes in multifunctional land-use at regional scale, given a set of predetermined scenarios or policy variants, e.g. for ex-ante policy assessment and initiation of discussions on regional development. The two other modelling approaches are complementary and aim to address multifunctional farming activities. The Landscape IMAGES framework generates a range of static images of possible but sometimes distant futures for multifunctional farming activities in a small region or landscape. It supports the exploration of trade-offs between financial returns from agriculture, landscape quality, nature conservation and restoration, and environmental quality. Co-Viability Analysis generates trajectories of states and farming decisions fulfilling a given set of ecological and productive constraints representing a desired and sustainable future. The three modelling approaches differ in their policy relevance, in the ways that spatial and socio-institutional scales are addressed and in their degree of explicitation of interaction between the various functions of agriculture, but jointly cover most of the desired capabilities for assessment of multifunctionality. Caveats were particularly identified in the integration of the socio-institutional dimension and the related heterogeneity. Although the model portfolio did not completely satisfy the demands of the set of evaluative criteria, it is concluded that, due to their complementarities, in combination the three models could significantly contribute to further development and strengthening of multifunctionality.
本文提出了一套标准，用于评估建模工具对强化农业多功能性的潜在贡献。评估的四个主要领域为：（1）政策相关性；（2）时间分辨率和范围；（3）处理空间和社会制度尺度及异质性的程度；（4）在科学维度评估和农业多种功能评估中的整合水平。这些评估标准应用于法国国家农业研究院（INRA）和荷兰瓦赫宁根大学及研究中心联合项目中开发和应用的一系列建模方法。CLUE-S模型专注于在给定一组预定情景或政策变体的情况下，预测区域尺度上多功能土地利用的变化，例如用于事前政策评估和启动关于区域发展的讨论。另外两种建模方法具有互补性，旨在处理多功能农业活动。景观图像（Landscape IMAGES）框架生成了小区域或景观中多功能农业活动可能但有时较为遥远的未来的一系列静态图像。它支持对农业经济回报、景观质量、自然保护与恢复以及环境质量之间权衡的探索。共同可行性分析（Co-Viability Analysis）生成满足一组代表期望和可持续未来的生态及生产约束的状态轨迹和农业决策。这三种建模方法在政策相关性、处理空间和社会制度尺度的方式以及农业各种功能之间相互作用的明确程度方面存在差异，但共同涵盖了评估多功能性所需的大部分能力。在社会制度维度及其相关异质性的整合方面特别指出了一些注意事项。尽管该模型组合并未完全满足评估标准集的要求，但得出的结论是，由于它们的互补性，这三种模型结合起来可对多功能性的进一步发展和强化做出重大贡献。
