Biometris, Wageningen University and Research Centre, P.O. Box 100, 6700 AC Wageningen, Netherlands.
Food Chem Toxicol. 2009 Dec;47(12):2926-40. doi: 10.1016/j.fct.2008.12.027. Epub 2008 Dec 27.
A statistical model is presented extending the integrated probabilistic risk assessment (IPRA) model of van der Voet and Slob [van der Voet, H., Slob, W., 2007. Integration of probabilistic exposure assessment and probabilistic hazard characterisation. Risk Analysis, 27, 351-371]. The aim is to characterise the health impact due to one or more chemicals present in food causing one or more health effects. For chemicals with hardly any measurable safety problems we propose health impact characterisation by margins of exposure. In this probabilistic model not one margin of exposure is calculated, but rather a distribution of individual margins of exposure (IMoE) which allows quantifying the health impact for small parts of the population. A simple bar chart is proposed to represent the IMoE distribution and a lower bound (IMoEL) quantifies uncertainties in this distribution. It is described how IMoE distributions can be combined for dose-additive compounds and for different health effects. Health impact assessment critically depends on a subjective valuation of the health impact of a given health effect, and possibilities to implement this health impact valuation step are discussed. Examples show the possibilities of health impact characterisation and of integrating IMoE distributions. The paper also includes new proposals for modelling variable and uncertain factors describing food processing effects and intraspecies variation in sensitivity.
提出了一个统计模型，扩展了范德沃特和斯洛布（van der Voet and Slob）的综合概率风险评估（IPRA）模型[van der Voet, H., Slob, W., 2007. 概率暴露评估与概率危害特征的综合. 风险分析, 27, 351-371]。其目的是描述由于食品中存在一种或多种化学物质引起一种或多种健康影响而导致的健康影响。对于几乎没有任何可测量安全问题的化学物质，我们建议通过暴露边际来进行健康影响特征描述。在这个概率模型中，不是计算一个暴露边际，而是计算个体暴露边际（IMoE）的分布，这允许对人口的一小部分量化健康影响。提出了一种简单的条形图来表示 IMoE 分布，并且 IMoEL 量化了这个分布中的不确定性。描述了如何为剂量相加的化合物和不同的健康影响组合 IMoE 分布。健康影响评估严重依赖于对给定健康影响的健康影响的主观评估，并且讨论了实现这一健康影响评估步骤的可能性。实例展示了健康影响特征描述和 IMoE 分布集成的可能性。本文还包括了新的提议，用于对描述食品加工效果和种内敏感性变化的可变和不确定因素进行建模。
