Guest Researcher, Center for Atmospheric Sciences, National Autonomous University of Mexico, Ciudad Universitaria, CP 04510, México D.F, Mexico.
Disasters. 2009 Oct;33(4):591-607. doi: 10.1111/j.1467-7717.2008.01089.x. Epub 2009 Jul 27.
Mexico's vast human and environmental diversity offers an initial framework for comprehending some of the prevailing great disparities between rich and poor. Its socio-economic constructed vulnerability to climatic events serves to expand this understanding. Based on a spatial econometric model, this paper tests the contribution of natural disasters to stimulating the emigration process in vulnerable regions of Mexico. Besides coping and adaptive capacity, it assesses the effects of economic losses due to disasters as well as the adverse production and trade conditions of the 1990s on emigration rates in 2000 at the municipality level. Weather-related disasters were responsible for approximately 80 per cent of economic losses in Mexico between 1980 and 2005, mostly in the agricultural sector, which continues to dominate many parts of the country. It is dramatic that this sector generates around only four per cent of gross domestic product but provides a livelihood to about one-quarter of the national population. It is no wonder, therefore, that most emigration from this country arises in vulnerable rural areas.
墨西哥在人类和环境方面的多样性为理解贫富之间存在的一些巨大差距提供了初步框架。其社会经济结构容易受到气候事件的影响，这有助于扩大这种理解。本文基于空间计量经济学模型，检验了自然灾害对墨西哥脆弱地区移民过程的促进作用。除了应对和适应能力外，它还评估了灾害造成的经济损失以及 20 世纪 90 年代不利的生产和贸易条件对 2000 年市政一级移民率的影响。在 1980 年至 2005 年期间，与天气有关的灾害约占墨西哥经济损失的 80%，主要发生在农业部门，该部门在该国许多地区仍然占据主导地位。令人震惊的是，该部门仅创造了大约 4%的国内生产总值，但却为全国约四分之一的人口提供了生计。因此，该国大部分移民来自脆弱的农村地区也就不足为奇了。
