Brenner Hermann, Hoffmeister Michael, Brenner Gerhard, Altenhofen Lutz, Haug Ulrike
Division of Clinical Epidemiology and Aging Research, German Cancer Research Center, D-69115 Heidelberg, Germany.
Eur J Cancer. 2009 Jul;45(11):2027-33. doi: 10.1016/j.ejca.2009.02.017. Epub 2009 Mar 14.
In late 2002, colonoscopy was introduced as a primary screening tool for colorectal cancer (CRC) in Germany. We aimed to estimate the expected reduction in case numbers and incidence of CRC between 2003 and 2010 by detection and removal of advanced adenomas. Data from 1,875,708 women and men included in the national screening colonoscopy database were combined with estimates of transition rates of advanced adenomas and with national population projections. Despite relatively low screening participation, incident CRC cases are expected to be reduced by more than 15,000 between 2003 and 2010. The impact is expected to be largest in age groups 55-59, 60-64 and 65-69 in whom total case numbers in 2010 are expected to be reduced by 13%, 19% and 14% among women, and by 11%, 15% and 12%, respectively, among men. Our results forecast a major rapid reduction of the CRC burden in Germany by screening colonoscopy.
2002年末，结肠镜检查在德国被引入作为结直肠癌（CRC）的主要筛查工具。我们旨在通过检测和切除进展性腺瘤来估计2003年至2010年间结直肠癌病例数和发病率的预期降低情况。将国家筛查结肠镜数据库中纳入的1,875,708名女性和男性的数据与进展性腺瘤的转化率估计值以及国家人口预测相结合。尽管筛查参与率相对较低，但预计2003年至2010年间新发结直肠癌病例将减少超过15,000例。预计在55 - 59岁、60 - 64岁和65 - 69岁年龄组中影响最大，预计2010年女性的总病例数将分别减少13%、19%和14%，男性则分别减少11%、15%和12%。我们的结果预测，通过筛查结肠镜检查，德国的结直肠癌负担将迅速大幅降低。
