Abteilung Klinische Epidemiologie und Alternsforschung, Deutsches Kresbforschungszentrum, Bergheimer Str. 20, 69115 Heidelberg, Germany.
Dtsch Arztebl Int. 2010 Oct;107(43):753-9. doi: 10.3238/arztebl.2010.0753. Epub 2010 Oct 29.
Screening colonoscopy has been offered in Germany since the end of 2002. Our aim was to estimate numbers of colorectal cancers prevented or detected early by screening colonoscopy in 2003-2010.
Participation rates and prevalences of advanced adenomas and colorectal cancers at screening colonoscopy in 2003-2008 were obtained from the national screening colonoscopy database by age, sex and calendar year. For 2009 and 2010, levels were assumed to remain at those observed in 2008. These data were combined in Markov models with population figures and estimates of transition rates from advanced adenomas to preclinical colorectal cancer and from preclinical cancer to clinically manifest cancer, accounting for total mortality.
An estimated total number of 98 734 cases of colorectal cancer at ages 55-84 years are expected to have been prevented in Germany by removal of advanced adenomas by the end of 2010. These cancers might have become clinically manifest a median time period of 10 years after screening colonoscopy. Another 47 168 cases are expected to have been detected early at screening colonoscopy, often in a curable stage.
Despite limited participation, the German screening colonoscopy program makes a major contribution to prevention and early detection of colorectal cancer.
自 2002 年底以来，德国一直在提供筛查结肠镜检查。我们的目的是估计 2003-2010 年通过筛查结肠镜检查预防或早期发现的结直肠癌数量。
通过年龄、性别和日历年来获取 2003-2008 年筛查结肠镜检查中晚期腺瘤和结直肠癌的参与率和流行率，并假设 2009 年和 2010 年的水平保持在 2008 年观察到的水平。将这些数据与人口数据以及从晚期腺瘤到临床前结直肠癌和从临床前癌到临床表现癌的转移率估计值相结合，考虑到总死亡率。
预计到 2010 年底，通过切除晚期腺瘤，德国可预防 55-84 岁人群中总计 98734 例结直肠癌。这些癌症在筛查结肠镜检查后平均 10 年可能会表现为临床症状。另外 47168 例病例预计将在筛查结肠镜检查中早期发现，通常处于可治愈阶段。
尽管参与率有限，但德国的筛查结肠镜检查计划为结直肠癌的预防和早期发现做出了重大贡献。
