Martin Julien, Nichols James D, McIntyre Carol L, Ferraz Gonçalo, Hines James E
Florida Cooperative Fish and Wildlife Research Unit, University of Florida, Gainesville, Florida 32611-0485, USA.
Ecology. 2009 Jan;90(1):10-6. doi: 10.1890/08-0646.1.
Perturbation analysis is a powerful tool to study population and community dynamics. This article describes expressions for sensitivity metrics reflecting changes in equilibrium occupancy resulting from small changes in the vital rates of patch occupancy dynamics (i.e., probabilities of local patch colonization and extinction). We illustrate our approach with a case study of occupancy dynamics of Golden Eagle (Aquila chrysaetos) nesting territories. Examination of the hypothesis of system equilibrium suggests that the system satisfies equilibrium conditions. Estimates of vital rates obtained using patch occupancy models are used to estimate equilibrium patch occupancy of eagles. We then compute estimates of sensitivity metrics and discuss their implications for eagle population ecology and management. Finally, we discuss the intuition underlying our sensitivity metrics and then provide examples of ecological questions that can be addressed using perturbation analyses. For instance, the sensitivity metrics lead to predictions about the relative importance of local colonization and local extinction probabilities in influencing equilibrium occupancy for rare and common species.
扰动分析是研究种群和群落动态的有力工具。本文描述了敏感性指标的表达式，这些指标反映了斑块占据动态（即局部斑块定殖和灭绝的概率）的生命率发生微小变化时平衡占据率的变化。我们以金雕（Aquila chrysaetos）筑巢领地的占据动态案例研究来说明我们的方法。对系统平衡假设的检验表明该系统满足平衡条件。使用斑块占据模型获得的生命率估计值用于估计鹰的平衡斑块占据率。然后，我们计算敏感性指标的估计值，并讨论它们对鹰种群生态学和管理的意义。最后，我们讨论了我们的敏感性指标背后的直觉，然后提供了一些可以使用扰动分析解决的生态问题的例子。例如，敏感性指标可以预测局部定殖和局部灭绝概率对稀有和常见物种平衡占据率影响的相对重要性。
