Environmental Systems Engineering Program, Faculty of Engineering, University of Regina, Regina, Saskatchewan, Canada.
Environ Pollut. 2009 Aug-Sep;157(8-9):2413-20. doi: 10.1016/j.envpol.2009.03.014. Epub 2009 Apr 8.
Elevated concentrations of arsenic were detected in surface soils adjacent to a smelting complex in northern Canada. We evaluated the cancer risks caused by exposure to arsenic in two communities through combining geostatistical simulation with demographic data and dose-response models in a framework. Distribution of arsenic was first estimated using geostatistical circulant-embedding simulation method. We then evaluated the exposures from inadvertent ingestion, inhalation and dermal contact. Risks of skin cancer and three internal cancers were estimated at both grid scale and census-unit scale using parametric dose-response models. Results indicated that local residents could face non-negligible cancer risks (skin cancer and liver cancer mainly). Uncertainties of risk estimates were discussed from the aspects of arsenic concentrations, exposed population and dose-response model. Reducing uncertainties would require additional soil sampling, epidemic records as well as complementary studies on land use, demographic variation, outdoor activities and bioavailability of arsenic.
在加拿大北部的一个冶炼厂附近的表层土壤中检测到砷的浓度升高。我们通过将地质统计学模拟与人口统计数据和剂量反应模型相结合，评估了两个社区因暴露于砷而导致的癌症风险。首先使用地质统计学循环嵌入模拟方法估计砷的分布。然后评估了因意外摄入、吸入和皮肤接触而导致的暴露情况。使用参数剂量反应模型在网格尺度和普查单位尺度上评估了皮肤癌和三种内部癌症的风险。结果表明，当地居民可能面临不可忽视的癌症风险（主要是皮肤癌和肝癌）。从砷浓度、暴露人群和剂量反应模型等方面讨论了风险估计的不确定性。减少不确定性需要进行更多的土壤采样、流行病学记录以及关于土地利用、人口统计变化、户外活动和砷生物利用度的补充研究。
