Department of Family Medicine, Chang Gung Memorial Hospital-Kaohsiung Medical Center, Chang Gung University College of Medicine, Kaohsiung, Taiwan.
Trans R Soc Trop Med Hyg. 2009 Sep;103(9):917-23. doi: 10.1016/j.trstmh.2009.03.027. Epub 2009 Apr 28.
To evaluate the validity of predicting the prevalence of antibodies to hepatitis C virus (anti-HCV) based on the prevalence of alanine transaminase (ALT) elevation (>40IU/l), we conducted a community-based study. In total, 56698 individuals underwent health examinations in 2004. Another 43738 subjects in 2005 were the validation set. It should be valid to predict the prevalence of anti-HCV in villages (>25 participants) by the prevalence of ALT elevation. The equation was anti-HCV (%)=(% of ALT elevation - 6%)/65% (n=487 villages, R(2)=0.58). Villages with prevalence of ALT elevation >13% had a high probability of being HCV-endemic (anti-HCV >10%). The sensitivity and specificity were 73.6 and 74.6%, respectively. By the validation set, the positive and negative predictive values were 52.0% and 79.4%, respectively. Clinical and epidemiological deductions of the equation were that baseline of ALT elevation was 6% and two-thirds of anti-HCV-positive subjects had elevated ALT.
为了评估基于丙氨酸转氨酶（ALT）升高（>40IU/L）患病率预测丙型肝炎病毒（HCV）抗体流行率的有效性，我们进行了一项社区研究。共有 56698 人在 2004 年接受了健康检查。2005 年的另一个 43738 个主题是验证集。通过 ALT 升高的患病率预测村庄（>25 名参与者）中抗 HCV 的流行率应该是有效的。该方程为抗 HCV（%）=（ALT 升高的% - 6%）/65%（n=487 个村庄，R²=0.58）。ALT 升高患病率>13%的村庄很可能是 HCV 流行地区（抗 HCV>10%）。灵敏度和特异性分别为 73.6%和 74.6%。根据验证集，阳性和阴性预测值分别为 52.0%和 79.4%。该方程的临床和流行病学推论是，ALT 升高的基线为 6%，三分之二的抗 HCV 阳性患者的 ALT 升高。
