Ahmad Arif, Gopi Govindan Veeraswami
Wildlife Institute of India Dehradun India.
Ecol Evol. 2025 Apr 23;15(4):e71247. doi: 10.1002/ece3.71247. eCollection 2025 Apr.
Human-induced habitat loss and fragmentation threaten biodiversity in the Eastern Himalayas, a crucial part of the Indo-Myanmar biodiversity hotspot. This study examines the distribution of 10 mammal species in Arunachal Pradesh using a multi-scale ensemble modeling approach, integrating Generalized Linear Models (GLM), Generalized Additive Models (GAM), and MaxEnt to assess habitat suitability. By analyzing 57 environmental predictor variables across multiple spatial scales, we found that elevation is a key determinant for carnivores such as the dhole and the Asiatic golden cat, while herbivores like the northern red muntjac and the mainland serow prefer broadleaf forests. Species distributions showed distinct patterns, with most carnivores concentrated in the south, except for the widely distributed yellow-throated marten. Dhole and leopard cat preferred elevated broadleaf forests, while the Asiatic golden cat favored mixed forests. Herbivores like the northern red muntjac and mainland serow were found at higher elevations, whereas the Indian wild pig preferred grasslands and degraded habitats near human settlements. While protected areas (PAs) exhibited higher species richness, significant suitable habitats also exist outside these regions, underscoring the need for landscape-level conservation strategies. Precipitation seasonality and human population density emerged as significant predictors, highlighting the influence of climatic and anthropogenic factors on habitat suitability. Our findings emphasize the necessity of conserving large, connected landscapes to mitigate human-induced pressures and climate change impacts on these species. By combining spatial modeling with ecological insights, this study provides a framework for prioritizing conservation efforts. Future research should expand data collection across broader temporal and geographic scales and incorporate climate change projections to anticipate species distribution shifts. These findings are critical for guiding effective conservation planning and habitat management in this ecologically rich yet vulnerable region.
人为导致的栖息地丧失和破碎化威胁着东喜马拉雅地区的生物多样性，该地区是印缅生物多样性热点的关键组成部分。本研究采用多尺度集成建模方法，整合广义线性模型（GLM）、广义相加模型（GAM）和最大熵模型（MaxEnt），研究了阿鲁纳恰尔邦10种哺乳动物的分布情况，以评估栖息地适宜性。通过分析多个空间尺度上的57个环境预测变量，我们发现海拔是亚洲豺犬和云豹等食肉动物的关键决定因素，而赤麂和中华鬣羚等食草动物则更喜欢阔叶林。物种分布呈现出明显的模式，除了分布广泛的黄喉貂外，大多数食肉动物集中在南部。亚洲豺犬和豹猫更喜欢海拔较高的阔叶林，而云豹则喜欢混交林。赤麂和中华鬣羚等食草动物分布在较高海拔地区，而印度野猪则更喜欢草原和人类聚居地附近的退化栖息地。虽然保护区的物种丰富度较高，但这些区域之外也存在大量适宜栖息地，这突出了制定景观层面保护策略的必要性。降水季节性和人口密度是重要的预测因素，凸显了气候和人为因素对栖息地适宜性的影响。我们的研究结果强调了保护大型连通景观以减轻人为压力和气候变化对这些物种影响的必要性。通过将空间建模与生态见解相结合，本研究为保护工作的优先排序提供了一个框架。未来的研究应在更广泛的时间和地理尺度上扩大数据收集，并纳入气候变化预测，以预测物种分布的变化。这些发现对于指导这个生态丰富但脆弱地区的有效保护规划和栖息地管理至关重要。
