Ahmed Luai A, Schirmer Henrik, Bjørnerem Ashild, Emaus Nina, Jørgensen Lone, Størmer Jan, Joakimsen Ragnar M
Institute of Community Medicine, University of Tromsø, 9037, Tromsø, Norway.
Eur J Epidemiol. 2009;24(8):441-8. doi: 10.1007/s10654-009-9353-8. Epub 2009 May 30.
Aim of this study is to estimate the gender- and age-specific 10-year and lifetime absolute risks of non-vertebral and osteoporotic (included hip, distal forearm and proximal humerus) fractures in a large cohort of men and women. This is a population-based 10 years follow-up study of 26,891 subjects aged 25 years and older in Tromsø, Norway. All non-vertebral fractures were registered from 1995 throughout 2004 by computerized search in radiographic archives. Absolute risks were estimated by life-table method taking into account the competing risk of death. The absolute fracture risk at each year of age was estimated for the next 10 years (10-year risk) or up to the age of 90 years (lifetime risk). The estimated 10-year absolute risk of all non-vertebral fracture was higher in men than women before but not after the age of 45 years. The 10-year absolute risk for non-vertebral and osteoporotic fractures was over 10%, respectively, in men over 65 and 70 years and in women over 45 and 50 years of age. The 10-year absolute risks of hip fractures at the age of 65 and 80 years were 4.2 and 18.6% in men, and 9.0 and 24.0% in women, respectively. The risk estimates for distal forearm and proximal humerus fractures were under 5% in men and 13% in women. The estimated lifetime risks for all fracture locations were higher in women than men at all ages. At the age of 50 years, the risks were 38.1 and 24.8% in men and 67.4 and 55.0% in women for all non-vertebral and osteoporotic fractures, respectively. The estimated gender- and age-specific 10-year and lifetime absolute fracture risk were higher in Tromsø than in other populations. The high lifetime fracture risk reflects the increased burden of fractures in this cohort.
本研究的目的是估计一大群男性和女性非椎体及骨质疏松性（包括髋部、前臂远端和肱骨近端）骨折的性别和年龄特异性10年及终生绝对风险。这是一项基于人群的对挪威特罗姆瑟26,891名25岁及以上受试者进行的10年随访研究。通过对放射影像存档进行计算机检索，记录了1995年至2004年期间所有的非椎体骨折。采用生命表法估计绝对风险，并考虑到死亡的竞争风险。估计了未来10年（10年风险）或直至90岁（终生风险）各年龄的绝对骨折风险。45岁之前男性所有非椎体骨折的估计10年绝对风险高于女性，但45岁之后则相反。65岁及以上男性和45岁及以上女性非椎体和骨质疏松性骨折的10年绝对风险分别超过10%。65岁和80岁时男性髋部骨折的10年绝对风险分别为4.2%和18.6%，女性分别为9.0%和24.0%。男性前臂远端和肱骨近端骨折的风险估计低于5%，女性为13%。所有骨折部位的估计终生风险在各年龄均为女性高于男性。50岁时，男性所有非椎体和骨质疏松性骨折的风险分别为38.1%和24.8%，女性分别为67.4%和55.0%。特罗姆瑟估计的性别和年龄特异性10年及终生绝对骨折风险高于其他人群。高终生骨折风险反映了该队列中骨折负担的增加。
