Guha-Sapir D
Disaster Epidemiology Research Centre, School of Public Health, Louvain Catholic University, Brussels, Belgium.
World Health Stat Q. 1991;44(3):171-81.
The increase in the number of natural disasters and their impact on population is of growing concern to countries at risk and agencies involved in health and humanitarian action. The numbers of persons killed or disabled as a result of earthquakes, cyclones, floods and famines have reached record levels in the last decade. Population density, rampant urbanization and climatic changes have brought about risk patterns that are exposing larger and larger sections of populations in developing countries to life-threatening natural disasters. Despite substantial spending on emergency relief, the approaches to relief remain largely ad hoc and amateurish, resulting generally in inappropriate and/or delayed action. In recent years, mass emergencies of the kind experienced in Bangladesh or the Sahelian countries have highlighted the importance of rapid assessment of health needs for better allocation of resources and relief management. As a result, the development of techniques for rapid assessment of health needs has been identified as a priority for effective emergency action. This article sketches the health context of disasters in terms of mortality and morbidity patterns; it describes initial assessment techniques currently used and their methodological biases and constraints; it also discusses assessment needs which vary between different types of disasters and the time frame within which assessments are undertaken. Earthquakes, cyclones, famines, epidemics or refugees all have specific risk profiles and emergency conditions which differ for each situation. Vulnerability to mortality changes according to age and occupation, for earthquakes and famines. These risk factors then have significant implications for the design of rapid assessment protocols and checklists. Experiences from the field in rapid survey techniques and estimation of death rates are discussed, with emphasis on the need for a reliable denominator even for the roughest assessment. Finally, the importance of adapting normal epidemiological and statistical methodologies to crisis situations is underlined in order to rationalize the recurrent and substantial expenditures made in response to natural disasters today.
自然灾害数量的增加及其对人口的影响,日益引起受灾国家以及参与卫生和人道主义行动的机构的关注。在过去十年中,因地震、气旋、洪水和饥荒而丧生或致残的人数达到了创纪录的水平。人口密度、猖獗的城市化进程以及气候变化导致了一些风险模式,使发展中国家越来越多的人口面临危及生命的自然灾害。尽管在紧急救援方面投入了大量资金,但救援方法在很大程度上仍然是临时的、业余的,通常导致行动不当和/或延误。近年来,孟加拉国或萨赫勒国家经历的那种大规模紧急情况凸显了快速评估卫生需求对于更合理地分配资源和进行救援管理的重要性。因此,开发快速评估卫生需求的技术已被确定为有效开展应急行动的一个优先事项。本文从死亡率和发病率模式方面勾勒了灾害的卫生背景;描述了目前使用的初始评估技术及其方法上的偏差和限制;还讨论了不同类型灾害之间不同的评估需求以及进行评估的时间框架。地震、气旋、饥荒、流行病或难民问题都有各自特定的风险状况和紧急情况,每种情况都有所不同。对于地震和饥荒而言,易受死亡影响的程度因年龄和职业而异。这些风险因素对快速评估方案和清单的设计具有重大影响。文中讨论了现场在快速调查技术和死亡率估计方面的经验,强调即使是最粗略的评估也需要一个可靠的分母。最后,强调了使正常的流行病学和统计方法适应危机情况的重要性,以便使当今为应对自然灾害而反复投入的大量资金合理化。