Population Estimates and Projections Section, United Nations Population Division, New York, USA.
J Biosoc Sci. 2009 Sep;41(5):607-24. doi: 10.1017/S0021932009003459. Epub 2009 Jun 17.
Mongolian fertility decline has received only limited analysis in the demographic literature. Using the 2003 Reproductive Health Survey of Mongolia the classical proximate determinants of fertility framework proposed by Bongaarts is applied here in order to analyse which factors shape period fertility. The results indicate that the fertility-inhibiting effect of contraception contributed to reduce period fertility by 54.2% from its theoretical maximum, while induced abortion accounted for only 6.1% of the reduction in fertility. Compared with previous studies made in the early 1990s, these results show that important changes in the control of reproduction took place in Mongolia during the fertility transition. In order to assess the changes implied by the transition to democracy and market economy, the proximate determinants of fertility are estimated for the year 1994. The results show that the importance of induced abortion in the determination of fertility level has reduced and that the use of modern contraception has increased progressively and contributed most in determining fertility level in 2003.
蒙古的生育率下降在人口统计学文献中仅受到有限的分析。本文运用 2003 年蒙古生殖健康调查的数据，应用邦加茨提出的经典生育近因框架来分析哪些因素影响了生育模式。结果表明，避孕的生育抑制作用使生育水平比理论最大值降低了 54.2%，而人工流产仅占生育率降低的 6.1%。与 20 世纪 90 年代初进行的先前研究相比，这些结果表明，蒙古在生育转变过程中，在生殖控制方面发生了重要变化。为了评估向民主和市场经济过渡所带来的变化，本文对 1994 年的生育近因进行了估计。结果表明，人工流产在决定生育水平方面的重要性已经降低，现代避孕方法的使用逐渐增加，并在 2003 年对决定生育水平做出了最大贡献。
