Erfani Amir, McQuillan Kevin
Population Studies Centre, Department of Sociology, University of Western Ontario, London, Ontario, Canada.
J Biosoc Sci. 2008 May;40(3):459-78. doi: 10.1017/S002193200700243X. Epub 2007 Sep 13.
The remarkable decline in fertility in Iran, which saw the total fertility rate fall from 7 children per woman in 1986 to 2 in 2000, has received only limited analysis in the demographic literature. Using the 2000 Iran Demographic and Health Survey and Bongaarts' age-specific fertility model, this paper examines the role of the major proximate determinants of fertility in bringing about the rapid decrease in fertility in Iran. The analysis indicates that contraception had the largest effect on fertility, accounting for 61% of the reduction in fertility from its theoretical maximum. The fertility-inhibiting effect of marriage patterns accounted for an additional 31% reduction, and was most important among the young. Further analysis of contraceptive behaviour suggests that the current period fertility rate of 2.0 children per woman is an outcome of a synchronization of delaying and spacing of births among younger women with stopping of childbearing among women in the middle and late reproductive ages. The policy implications of the results are discussed.
伊朗的生育率显著下降，其总和生育率从1986年的每名妇女7个孩子降至2000年的2个孩子，而人口统计学文献对此的分析有限。本文利用2000年伊朗人口与健康调查以及邦加茨特定年龄生育率模型，研究了生育率的主要直接决定因素在伊朗生育率迅速下降过程中所起的作用。分析表明，避孕对生育率的影响最大，占生育率从理论最大值下降幅度的61%。婚姻模式对生育率的抑制作用又占下降幅度的31%，且在年轻人中最为重要。对避孕行为的进一步分析表明，目前每名妇女2.0个孩子的时期生育率是年轻妇女推迟生育和生育间隔同步以及中年和老年育龄妇女停止生育的结果。文中讨论了这些结果的政策含义。
