Wang S X, Chen Y D, Chen C H, Rochat R W, Chow L P, Rider R V
Stud Fam Plann. 1987 Jul-Aug;18(4):222-8.
Data from a 1982 sample survey of 3,830 married women below age 50 in a district of Beijing City are applied to the Bongaarts model of the proximate determinants of fertility. A total fertility rate (TFR) of 0.75 births per woman is estimated from the model, compared with a TFR of 1.24 actually observed from the survey. The estimated TFR (0.75) results from the assumed total fecundity (TF) of 15.30 births per woman being inhibited by the indexes of the proximate determinants of fertility, most notably non-marriage (.280), contraception (.315), and induced abortion (.586). The effects of two other proximate determinants, lactational infecundability and spousal separation, were negligible. Comparative data from other countries confirm that the study area has very low levels of fertility and marriage, a very high prevalence of induced abortion, and a small effect of lactational infecundability. The extremely low level of fertility was, thus, achieved through a high level of induced abortion. Future research needs and policy implications associated with the study are discussed.
来自1982年对北京市某区3830名50岁以下已婚妇女的抽样调查数据被应用于生育近因决定因素的邦加茨模型。该模型估计每名妇女的总生育率（TFR）为0.75胎，而调查实际观察到的TFR为1.24。估计的TFR（0.75）是由于假设每名妇女的总生育力（TF）为15.30胎受到生育近因决定因素指标的抑制，最显著的是未婚（0.280）、避孕（0.315）和人工流产（0.586）。另外两个近因决定因素，即哺乳期不孕和配偶分居的影响可忽略不计。来自其他国家的比较数据证实，研究区域的生育率和结婚率非常低，人工流产的发生率非常高，哺乳期不孕的影响很小。因此，极低的生育率是通过高水平的人工流产实现的。讨论了与该研究相关的未来研究需求和政策含义。
