Institute of Transport Economics, Gaustadalléen 21, Oslo NO-0349, Norway.
Accid Anal Prev. 2009 Jul;41(4):876-80. doi: 10.1016/j.aap.2009.05.003. Epub 2009 May 27.
Road safety programmes consisting of a large number of road safety measures have been developed in many countries. To estimate the effects of such programmes on the number of accidents, models for estimating the combined effects of road safety measures are needed. This paper presents an exploratory analysis of such models. There is very little empirical evidence to support model building. Based on a few studies that have evaluated the effects of multiple road safety measures introduced at the same locations, the paper compares two models. One of the models, the common residuals model, assumes that the (percentage) effect of a road safety measure remains unchanged when it is combined with other road safety measures. The other model, the dominant common residuals model, assumes that the most effective measure in a set of measures has a dominant effect that weakens the effects of other road safety measures it is combined with. Evidence from the few studies that were found is consistent with both these models. A study of the effects of a road safety programme implemented in Victoria, Australia between 1990 and 1996 indicated that the effects of safety measures are weakened when these measures are combined with other road safety measures.
许多国家都制定了包含大量道路安全措施的道路安全计划。为了评估这些计划对事故数量的影响，需要建立用于估计道路安全措施综合效果的模型。本文对这些模型进行了探索性分析。由于几乎没有经验证据支持模型的建立，因此本文基于一些评估在相同地点实施的多项道路安全措施效果的研究，比较了两种模型。其中一种模型是常见残差模型，该模型假设当道路安全措施与其他措施结合使用时，其（百分比）效果保持不变。另一种模型是主导常见残差模型，该模型假设在一组措施中，最有效的措施具有主导效应，会削弱与其结合使用的其他道路安全措施的效果。从已发现的少数研究中获得的证据与这两种模型都一致。对澳大利亚维多利亚州 1990 年至 1996 年实施的道路安全计划效果的研究表明，当这些措施与其他道路安全措施结合使用时，安全措施的效果会减弱。
