Institute of Transport Economics, Gaustadalléen 21, NO-0349 Oslo, Norway.
Accid Anal Prev. 2010 Nov;42(6):2171-8. doi: 10.1016/j.aap.2010.03.022. Epub 2010 May 7.
National road safety programmes have been developed in many motorised countries. Some of these programmes contain estimates of the safety benefits that were expected to be realised if the programmes were fully implemented. When these estimates are compared to actual outcomes, it is not uncommon to find large differences. This paper argues that differences between the predicted and actual results of road safety programmes could be the result of a large, but generally unrecognised, uncertainty inherent in estimates of the effects of such programmes. Ten sources of uncertainty are identified and briefly described. The possibility of describing these sources of uncertainty numerically, and of estimating their joint contribution, is discussed. It is concluded that at the current state of knowledge, it is not possible to meaningfully estimate the total uncertainty inherent in road safety programmes. The prospects of reducing uncertainty by means of research are discussed.
许多机动车化国家都制定了国家道路安全计划。其中一些计划包含了如果这些计划得到全面实施，预计将实现的安全效益的估计。当将这些估计与实际结果进行比较时，发现存在很大差异是很常见的。本文认为，道路安全计划的预测结果和实际结果之间的差异可能是由于此类计划效果估计中存在很大但通常未被认识到的不确定性。确定并简要描述了十种不确定性来源。讨论了用数字描述这些不确定性来源并估计它们共同贡献的可能性。得出的结论是，就目前的知识水平而言，不可能对道路安全计划中固有的总不确定性进行有意义的估计。还讨论了通过研究来减少不确定性的前景。
