de Jong M C M, Hagenaars T J
Quantitative Veterinary Epidemiology, Wageningen University, P.O. Box 338, 6700 AH Wageningen, The Netherlands.
Rev Sci Tech. 2009 Apr;28(1):371-7. doi: 10.20506/rst.28.1.1858.
In this paper the authors discuss the use of modelling in the evaluation of strategies designed to control epidemics of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) in poultry. Referring to a number of published models for HPAI transmission in poultry, the authors describe the different ways that modellers use quantitative information. Quantitative information can be used for model building, parameter estimation, and model validation. The authors emphasise that in the case of HPAI transmission in poultry there are important gaps in our understanding. Due to these gaps the models for the effects of certain control strategies, especially those involving vaccination of poultry, need to be based on provisional assumptions. Hence, it is necessary to validate these models and to do research to improve our understanding of the underlying processes in order to better parameterise the models and better estimate the parameters.
在本文中，作者探讨了建模在评估旨在控制家禽高致病性禽流感（HPAI）疫情的策略中的应用。作者提及了一些已发表的关于HPAI在家禽中传播的模型，描述了建模者使用定量信息的不同方式。定量信息可用于模型构建、参数估计和模型验证。作者强调，在家禽HPAI传播方面，我们的理解存在重要差距。由于这些差距，某些控制策略（尤其是涉及家禽疫苗接种的策略）效果的模型需要基于临时假设。因此，有必要对这些模型进行验证，并开展研究以增进我们对潜在过程的理解，从而更好地对模型进行参数化并更准确地估计参数。
