Rorres C, Pelletier S T K, Bruhn M C, Smith G
School of Veterinary Medicine, University of Pennsylvania, 382 West Street Road, Kennett Square, PA 19348, USA.
Avian Dis. 2011 Mar;55(1):35-42. doi: 10.1637/9429-061710-Reg.1.
We formulate a stochastic, spatial, discrete-time model of viral "Susceptible, Exposed, Infectious, Recovered" animal epidemics and apply it to an avian influenza epidemic in Pennsylvania in 1983-84. Using weekly data for the number of newly infectious cases collected during the epidemic, we find estimates for the latent period of the virus and the values of two parameters within the transmission kernel of the model. These data are then jackknifed on a progressive weekly basis to show how our estimates can be applied to an ongoing epidemic to generate continually improving values of certain epidemic parameters.
我们构建了一个关于病毒“易感、潜伏、感染、康复”动物流行病的随机、空间、离散时间模型，并将其应用于1983 - 1984年宾夕法尼亚州的禽流感疫情。利用疫情期间每周收集的新感染病例数量数据，我们得出了病毒潜伏期的估计值以及模型传播核内两个参数的值。然后，这些数据按周逐步进行留一法交叉验证，以展示我们的估计如何应用于正在发生的疫情，从而不断改进某些疫情参数的值。
