Medhaug I, Olseth J A, Reuder J
Geophysical Institute, University of Bergen, Allégaten 70, N-5007 Bergen, Norway.
J Photochem Photobiol B. 2009 Sep 4;96(3):232-41. doi: 10.1016/j.jphotobiol.2009.06.011. Epub 2009 Jul 2.
A distinct increase in skin cancer incidences is observed since the registration started in Norway in the 1950s. As UV radiation is assumed to be the main risk factor for skin cancer, hourly values of the UV irradiance were reconstructed for the period 1957-2005 for 17 of the Norwegian counties (58-70 degrees N). For reconstruction, a radiation transfer model is run with total ozone amount and cloud information as meteorological input. Reconstructed hourly erythemally weighted UV irradiances for about 5 years are compared to measurements at four stations, two stations representing the north-south extension of Norway, and two stations at about 60 degrees N representing the eastern inland - Western coastal contrasts. The agreement between reconstructed and measured UV varies between 0% for the northernmost site to 10-15% overestimation for the other locations. For clear sky, a reasonable agreement between reconstructed and measured data was found for all stations, while for overcast, an overestimation of 10-20% was found for all but the northernmost station. Both the cancer incidences and the reconstructed UV values have a distinct north-south increase. The UV increase towards south is mostly due to increasing solar elevation. The west to east increase is much smaller, and differences in UV are due to differences in both cloud optical thickness and total cloud amount. One additional outcome from this work is that long-term UV-data are reconstructed for Norway, data that can be used in further biological and medical studies related to UV effects.
自20世纪50年代挪威开始进行登记以来，皮肤癌发病率显著上升。由于紫外线辐射被认为是皮肤癌的主要风险因素，因此对挪威17个郡（北纬58 - 70度）1957 - 2005年期间的紫外线辐照度小时值进行了重建。为进行重建，运行了一个辐射传输模型，将总臭氧量和云信息作为气象输入。将约5年的重建小时红斑加权紫外线辐照度与四个站点的测量值进行比较，其中两个站点代表挪威的南北延伸，另外两个站点位于北纬约60度，代表东部内陆 - 西部沿海的差异。重建值与测量值之间的一致性在最北端站点为0%，其他地点则高估1０ - 15%。对于晴空条件，所有站点的重建数据与测量数据之间都有合理的一致性，而对于阴天，除最北端站点外，所有站点都高估了10 - 20%。癌症发病率和重建的紫外线值都呈现出明显的南北递增趋势。紫外线向南增加主要是由于太阳高度增加。从西向东的增加幅度要小得多，紫外线的差异是由于云光学厚度和总云量的差异。这项工作的另一个成果是为挪威重建了长期紫外线数据，这些数据可用于进一步开展与紫外线效应相关的生物学和医学研究。
