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德国核反应堆附近儿童白血病与癌症:近期研究的意义、背景及影响

Childhood leukemia and cancers near German nuclear reactors: significance, context, and ramifications of recent studies.

作者信息

Nussbaum Rudi H

机构信息

Department of Physics and Environmental Sciences, Portland State University, Portland, OR, USA.

出版信息

Int J Occup Environ Health. 2009 Jul-Sep;15(3):318-23. doi: 10.1179/oeh.2009.15.3.318.

Abstract

A government-sponsored study of childhood cancer in the proximity of German nuclear power plants (German acronym KiKK) found that children < 5 years living < 5 km from plant exhaust stacks had twice the risk for contracting leukemia as those residing > 5 km. The researchers concluded that since "this result was not to be expected under current radiation-epidemiological knowledge" and confounders could not be identified, the observed association of leukemia incidence with residential proximity to nuclear plants "remains unexplained." This unjustified conclusion illustrates the dissonance between evidence and assumptions. There exist serious flaws and gaps in the knowledge on which accepted models for population exposure and radiation risk are based. Studies with results contradictory to those of KiKK lack statistical power to invalidate its findings. The KiKK study's ramifications add to the urgency for a public policy debate regarding the health impact of nuclear power generation.

摘要

一项由政府资助的关于德国核电站附近儿童癌症的研究(德语缩写为KiKK)发现,居住在距离核电站废气排放烟囱5公里以内的5岁以下儿童患白血病的风险是居住在5公里以外儿童的两倍。研究人员得出结论,由于“根据当前的辐射流行病学知识,这一结果是无法预料的”,而且无法确定混杂因素,因此观察到的白血病发病率与居住在核电站附近之间的关联“仍无法解释”。这一不合理的结论说明了证据与假设之间的不一致。在被广泛接受的人群暴露和辐射风险模型所依据的知识方面,存在严重的缺陷和空白。结果与KiKK研究结果相矛盾的研究缺乏推翻其 findings 的统计效力。KiKK研究的影响增加了就核能发电对健康的影响展开公共政策辩论的紧迫性。

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