Paediatrician human resource planning in Canada: A 10-year follow-up.

BACKGROUND

Paediatrician human resource planning in Canada is currently a major concern. The optimal mix of physicians by type of practice and geographical distribution also remains controversial for many groups of physicians.

OBJECTIVE

To compare 10-year trends (1987 to 1997) in paediatric practice with respect to age, sex and percentage of paediatricians practicing tertiary care.

METHODS

Information on the demographics and practice patterns of Canadian paediatricians obtained from national surveys conducted in 1987 and 1997 was examined.

RESULTS

In the 1987 survey, 1960 paediatricians were mailed a questionnaire, and 1352 questionnaires were returned (response rate of 69%). In the 1997 survey, 1706 of 2337 paediatricians returned the completed questionnaire (response rate of 73%). In 1987, 26.2% of paediatricians were women compared with 38.5% in 1997 (P<0.0001). When men and women were combined, 14.5% of paediatricians were in the 25- to 34-year age bracket in 1987, compared with only 9.7% in 1997 (P=0.0002). In 1987, 37.7% of paediatricians reported practicing tertiary care versus 38.7% in 1997 (P=0.61). In addition, tertiary care paediatricians have become more centralized in communities with more than 100,000 people.

CONCLUSIONS

The results confirm that the paediatric workforce is aging, located primarily in large urban areas and shifting toward more women. Shortages of paediatricians, especially in remote and rural areas, continue to be a major concern and show no signs of improvement. The potential impact of these changes on delivery and quality of child-care services in the future needs to be assessed.