一种估算热浪导致超额死亡人数的简单方法，应用于 2006 年加利福尼亚热浪。
A simple method for estimating excess mortality due to heat waves, as applied to the 2006 California heat wave.
机构信息
Environmental Health Investigations Branch, California Department of Public Health, 850 Marina Bay Parkway, Building P, 3rd Floor, Richmond, CA 94804, USA.
出版信息
Int J Public Health. 2010 Apr;55(2):133-7. doi: 10.1007/s00038-009-0060-8. Epub 2009 Aug 13.
OBJECTIVES
To characterize excess mortality during a major heat wave in California and its regions; to assess the validity of a simple method.
METHODS
We calculated mortality rate ratios for the heat-wave period, using a reference period of the same number of days from the same summer. We conducted alternative analyses and compared our results with those from a time-series model.
RESULTS
We estimated 655 excess deaths, a 6% increase (95% confidence interval, 3-9%), impacting varied geographic/climate regions. Alternate analyses supported model validity.
CONCLUSIONS
California experienced excess heat-wave related mortality not restricted to high heat regions. As climate change is anticipated to increase heat events, public health efforts to monitor effects assume greater importance.
目的
描述加利福尼亚州及其地区在一次重大热浪期间的超额死亡率；评估一种简单方法的有效性。
方法
我们使用同一夏季相同天数的参考期计算了热浪期的死亡率比。我们进行了替代分析，并将结果与时间序列模型的结果进行了比较。
结果
我们估计有 655 人超额死亡，增加了 6%（95%置信区间，3-9%），影响了不同的地理/气候区域。替代分析支持模型的有效性。
结论
加利福尼亚州经历了与热浪相关的超额死亡，不仅限于高温地区。随着气候变化预计会增加热事件，监测影响的公共卫生工作显得更为重要。
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