Impact of potential changes to the current bovine spongiform encephalopathy surveillance programs for slaughter cattle and fallen stock in Japan.

Cattle slaughtered in Japan for human consumption, regardless of their age, have been tested for bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) since October 2001. Beginning in April 2004, all fallen stock from 24 months of age also have been tested. We evaluated the impact of potential changes to the current BSE surveillance programs for both slaughter cattle and fallen stock using a simple stochastic model. We calculated the probability that a BSE-infected dairy cow, Wagyu beef animal, Wagyu-Holstein cross steer or heifer, or Holstein steer slaughtered for human consumption or arising as fallen stock would be tested and detected. Four surveillance strategies were explored for cattle slaughtered for human consumption, with the minimum age at testing set at 0, 21, 31, or 41 months. Three surveillance strategies were explored for fallen stock, with the minimum age at testing set at 24, 31, or 41 months. Increasing the minimum age of testing from 0 to 21 months for both dairy cattle and Wagyu beef cattle had very little impact on the probability that a BSE-infected animal slaughtered for human consumption would be detected. Although increasing the minimum age at testing from 21 to 31 or 41 months would lead to fewer slaughtered animals being tested, the impact on the probability of detecting infected animals would be insignificant. The probability of infected Wagyu-Holstein crosses and Holstein steers being detected at slaughter or as fallen stock would be very low under all surveillance strategies.