Iñiguez-Stevens Esmeralda, Brouwer Kimberly C, Hogg Robert S, Patterson Thomas L, Lozada Remedios, Magis-Rodríguez Carlos, Elder John P, Viani Rolando M, Strathdee Steffanie A
School of Medicine, University of California San Diego, La Jolla, California, USA.
Gac Med Mex. 2009 May-Jun;145(3):189-95.
Estimate the 2006 HIV prevalence among adults aged 15-49 from the general population and at-risk subgroups in Tijuana, Mexico.
Demographic data was obtained from the 2005 Mexican census and HIV prevalence data was obtained from reports in the literature. We developed a population-based HIV prevalence model for the overall population and stratified it by gender. Sensitivity analysis consisted of estimating standard errors in the weighted-average point prevalence and calculating partial derivatives of each parameter.
HIV prevalence among adults was 0.54% (N = 4347) (range 0.22-0.86% [N = 1750-6944]). This suggests that 0.85% (range 0.39-1.31%) of men and 0.22% (0.04-0.40%) of women could have been HIV-infected in 2006. Men who have sex with men (MSM), followed by female sex workers who are injection drug users (FSW-IDU), FSW-non IDU, female IDU, and male IDU were the most at risk groups of infected individuals.
The number of HIV-infected adults among at-risk subgroups in Tijuana is significant, highlighting the need to design tailored prevention interventions that focus on the specific needs of certain groups. According to our model, as many as 1 in 116 adults could potentially be HIV-infected.
估算2006年墨西哥蒂华纳市普通人群及高危亚组中15至49岁成年人的艾滋病毒感染率。
人口统计学数据来自2005年墨西哥人口普查，艾滋病毒感染率数据来自文献报告。我们为总体人群建立了一个基于人群的艾滋病毒感染率模型，并按性别进行分层。敏感性分析包括估计加权平均点患病率的标准误差以及计算每个参数的偏导数。
成年人中的艾滋病毒感染率为0.54%（N = 4347）（范围为0.22 - 0.86%[N = 1750 - 6944]）。这表明在2006年，0.85%（范围为0.39 - 1.31%）的男性和0.22%（0.04 - 0.40%）的女性可能感染了艾滋病毒。男男性行为者（MSM），其次是注射吸毒的女性性工作者（FSW-IDU）、非注射吸毒的女性性工作者（FSW-non IDU）、女性注射吸毒者和男性注射吸毒者是感染个体的最高危群体。
蒂华纳市高危亚组中感染艾滋病毒的成年人数量可观，这突出表明需要设计针对特定群体具体需求的量身定制的预防干预措施。根据我们的模型，多达116名成年人中就可能有1人感染艾滋病毒。
