Mapping risk foci for endemic sheep scab.

Psoroptic mange in sheep, resulting from infestation by the astigmatid mite Psoroptes ovis, is increasingly prevalent in Europe and other parts of the world. As a step towards improved national control, regional or local scab management programmes that target high-risk areas and aim to maintain the number of outbreaks below an acceptable level may be an effective initial use of time and resource. To facilitate such a management approach, in this paper scab outbreak farms are identified using a questionnaire survey of sheep farmers, the data from which are then used to build a national scab risk model for Great Britain. The questionnaire results indicate a national prevalence of scab, between March 2007 and February 2008, of 8.6% (+/-1.98). However, previous exposure to sheep scab significantly affected the respondent's probability of reporting a scab outbreak during the survey period (chi(2)=53.2, d.f.=1, P<0.001); 85% of the farms that reported at least one scab outbreak had experienced outbreaks in previous years, 27% had experienced outbreaks in more than five of the previous 10 years. In contrast, 76% of farms that did not report scab had not had a previous outbreak. The highest prevalence areas were in Northern England, Wales, Southwest England and Scotland. Modelling the distribution of the reported scab outbreaks identified height above sea level, temperature and rainfall as significant predictors of the probability of an outbreak, superimposed on an underlying pattern of sheep abundance. It is argued that scab management programmes directed at these foci have the potential to allow a more targeted approach to scab control and significantly reduce the prevalence of scab in the UK and other European countries.