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缺乏战略洞察力:“脏弹”行动。

Lack of strategic insight: the "dirty bomb" effort.

作者信息

Goffman Tom

机构信息

Cancer & Culture Intelligence and Research, Virginia Beach, Virginia, USA.

出版信息

Am J Disaster Med. 2009 May-Jun;4(3):181-3.

Abstract

Multiple countries including the United States and France are investing heavily in countermeasures to the threat of a "dirty bomb." All of the machinery simply involves a variation on a Geiger counter that picks up excess photon irradiation. Classically, a "dirty bomb" is defined as a dangerous radioactive material mixed in a variety of ways with high explosive, so when detonated, radioactive material is dispersed. Solid radioactive material such as Cesium or Cobalt sends off very penetrating ('hard') photons from which one cannot simply be protected by sheet lead or a heavy door. For official occasions with dignitaries of State, such a bomb could prove a modest distraction, but simple radiation physics suggests such a bomb would be limited in the damage it could cause, would largely be a mess to be cleaned up by an appropriately trained crew, would involve a very confined area, and thoroughly fails to comprehend the mentality of al-Queda 'central' that wishes to follow 9/11 with an equal or greater show of terrorist force. The author would argue this sort of mind-think occurs when you have too few people in the hard sciences in your intelligence sections.

摘要

包括美国和法国在内的多个国家正在大力投资应对“脏弹”威胁的对策。所有这些装置实际上只是盖革计数器的一种变体,用于检测过量的光子辐射。传统上,“脏弹”被定义为以各种方式与高爆炸药混合的危险放射性物质,因此在引爆时,放射性物质会扩散。像铯或钴这样的固体放射性物质会发出穿透力很强的(“硬”)光子,仅靠铅板或厚重的门无法对其进行防护。对于有国家政要出席的官方场合,这样一枚炸弹可能只会造成一定程度的干扰,但简单的辐射物理学表明,这种炸弹造成的破坏有限,主要是需要一支训练有素的队伍来清理的一团乱麻,影响范围非常局限,而且完全没有考虑到基地组织“核心”的心态,他们希望在9·11事件后展现出同等或更大规模的恐怖力量。作者认为当情报部门中从事硬科学研究的人员过少时,就会出现这种思维方式。

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