Facultad de CC da Educacion e o Deporte, Universidad de Vigo, 36002 Pontevedra, Spain.
J Sports Sci. 2009 Nov;27(13):1463-9. doi: 10.1080/02640410903131681.
The aim of this study was to examine the effects of match location, quality of opposition, and match status on possession strategies in a professional Spanish football team. Twenty-seven matches from the 2005-2006 domestic league season were notated post-event using a computerized match analysis system. Matches were divided into episodes according to evolving match status. Linear regression analysis showed that possession of the ball was greater when losing than when winning (P < 0.01) or drawing (P < 0.05), and playing against strong opposition was associated with a decrease in time spent in possession (P < 0.01). In addition, weighted mean percentage time spent in different zones of the pitch (defensive third, middle third, attacking third) was influenced by match status (P < 0.01) and match location (P < 0.05). A combination of these variables and their interactions can be used to develop a model to predict future possession in football. The findings emphasize the need for match analysts and coaches to consider independent and interactive potential effects of match location, quality of opposition, and match status during assessments of technical and tactical components of football performance. In particular, the findings indicate that strategies in soccer are influenced by match variables and teams alter their playing style during the game accordingly.
本研究旨在考察比赛地点、对手质量和比赛状态对西班牙职业足球俱乐部控球策略的影响。使用计算机化比赛分析系统对 2005-2006 赛季的 27 场国内联赛比赛进行了赛后记录。根据比赛的发展情况，将比赛分为不同的阶段。线性回归分析显示，当球队输球时，控球时间比赢球（P<0.01）或平局（P<0.05）时更长，而面对实力更强的对手时，控球时间会减少（P<0.01）。此外，球场上不同区域（防守三区、中场三区、进攻三区）的加权平均时间百分比也受到比赛状态（P<0.01）和比赛地点（P<0.05）的影响。这些变量及其相互作用的组合可以用来建立一个模型，以预测足球比赛中的未来控球情况。研究结果强调了比赛分析师和教练在评估足球比赛的技术和战术组成部分时，需要考虑比赛地点、对手质量和比赛状态的独立和交互潜在影响。特别是，研究结果表明，足球比赛中的策略受到比赛变量的影响，球队会根据比赛情况相应地改变他们的比赛风格。
