Stanford University School of Medicine, Stanford University Medical Center, Stanford, CA 94305, USA.
AIDS. 2009 Nov 27;23(18):2523-32. doi: 10.1097/QAD.0b013e3283320ef3.
To investigate the origins and evolutionary history of subtype C HIV-1 in Zimbabwe in a context of regional conflict and migration.
HIV-1C pol sequence datasets were generated from four sequential cohorts of antenatal women in Harare, Zimbabwe sampled over 15 years (1991-2006).
One hundred and seventy-seven HIV-1C pol sequences were obtained from four successive cohorts in Zimbabwe. Maximum-likelihood methods were used to explore phylogenetic relationships between Zimbabwean HIV-1C sequences and subtype C strains from other regions. A Bayesian coalescent-based framework was used to estimate evolutionary parameters for HIV-1C in Zimbabwe, including origin and demographic growth patterns.
Zimbabwe HIV-1C pol demonstrated increasing sequence divergence over the 15-year period. Nearly all Zimbabwe sequences clustered phylogenetically with subtype C strains from neighboring countries. Bayesian evolutionary analysis indicated a most recent common ancestor date of 1973 with three epidemic growth phases: an initial, slow phase (1970s) followed by exponential growth (1980s), and a linearly expanding epidemic to the present. Bayesian trees provided evidence for multiple HIV-1C introductions into Zimbabwe during 1979-1981, corresponding with Zimbabwean national independence following a period of socio-political instability.
The Zimbabwean HIV-1C epidemic likely originated from multiple introductions in the late 1970s and grew exponentially during the 1980s, corresponding to changing political boundaries and rapid population influx from neighboring countries. The timing and phylogenetic clustering of the Zimbabwean sequences is consistent with an origin in southern Africa and subsequent expansion. HIV-1 sequence data contain important epidemiological information, which can help focus treatment and prevention strategies in light of more recent political volatility in Zimbabwe.
在区域冲突和移民背景下，研究津巴布韦 C 型 HIV-1 的起源和进化史。
从津巴布韦哈拉雷的四个连续的产前妇女队列中生成 HIV-1C pol 序列数据集，采样时间跨越 15 年（1991-2006 年）。
从津巴布韦的四个连续队列中获得了 177 个 HIV-1C pol 序列。使用最大似然法探索了津巴布韦 HIV-1C 序列与来自其他地区的 C 型病毒株之间的系统发育关系。贝叶斯协变分析框架用于估计津巴布韦 HIV-1C 的进化参数，包括起源和人口增长模式。
15 年来，津巴布韦 HIV-1C pol 的序列差异逐渐增大。几乎所有津巴布韦序列都与邻国的 C 型病毒株聚类在一起。贝叶斯进化分析表明，津巴布韦 HIV-1C 的最近共同祖先日期为 1973 年，有三个流行增长阶段：初始的、缓慢的阶段（20 世纪 70 年代），接着是指数增长（20 世纪 80 年代），最后是线性扩展到现在。贝叶斯树提供了证据表明，1979-1981 年期间有多次 HIV-1C 传入津巴布韦，这与津巴布韦在经历一段社会政治不稳定时期后实现国家独立相对应。
津巴布韦 HIV-1C 流行可能起源于 20 世纪 70 年代末的多次传入，并在 20 世纪 80 年代呈指数增长，这与不断变化的政治边界和来自邻国的人口快速涌入相对应。津巴布韦序列的时间和系统发育聚类与南部非洲的起源和随后的扩张一致。HIV-1 序列数据包含重要的流行病学信息，可以帮助根据津巴布韦最近的政治动荡来集中治疗和预防策略。
