School of Public Health and Community Medicine, University of New South Wales, Sydney NSW 2052, Australia.
Epidemiol Infect. 2010 Apr;138(4):457-68. doi: 10.1017/S0950268809990860. Epub 2009 Sep 28.
We examined the impact of one-dose vs. two-dose vaccination strategies on the epidemiology of varicella zoster virus (VZV) in Australia, using a mathematical model. Strategies were assessed in terms of varicella (natural and breakthrough) and zoster incidence, morbidity, average age of infection and vaccine effectiveness (VE). Our modelling results suggest that compared to a one-dose vaccination strategy (Australia's current vaccination schedule), a two-dose strategy is expected to not only produce less natural varicella cases (5% vs. 13% of pre-vaccination state, respectively) but also considerably fewer breakthrough varicella cases (only 11.4% of one-dose strategy). Therefore a two-dose infant vaccination programme would be a better long-term strategy for Australia.
我们使用数学模型研究了澳大利亚一剂与两剂接种策略对水痘带状疱疹病毒（VZV）流行病学的影响。我们根据水痘（自然和突破性）和带状疱疹发病率、发病率、感染平均年龄和疫苗有效性（VE）来评估策略。我们的模型结果表明，与一剂接种策略（澳大利亚目前的疫苗接种计划）相比，两剂接种策略不仅预计会减少自然发生的水痘病例（分别为接种前状态的 5%和 13%），而且突破性水痘病例也会明显减少（只有一剂策略的 11.4%）。因此，两剂婴儿疫苗接种计划对澳大利亚来说是一个更好的长期策略。
