National Institute for Health and Welfare (THL), Department of Vaccination and Immune Protection, FI-00300 Helsinki, Finland.
Epidemiol Infect. 2010 Apr;138(4):469-81. doi: 10.1017/S0950268809990768. Epub 2009 Oct 2.
It has been suggested that the incidence of herpes zoster may increase due to lack of natural boosting under large-scale vaccination with the varicella vaccine. To study the possibility and magnitude of such negative consequences of mass vaccination, we built a mathematical model of varicella and zoster epidemiology in the Finnish population. The model was based on serological data on varicella infection, case-notification data on zoster, and new knowledge about close contacts relevant to transmission of infection. According to the analysis, a childhood programme against varicella will increase the incidence of zoster by one to more than two thirds in the next 50 years. This will be due to increase in case numbers in the 35 years age groups. However, high vaccine coverage and a two-dose programme will be very effective in stopping varicella transmission in the population.
有人认为，由于大规模接种水痘疫苗导致自然增强作用缺乏，带状疱疹的发病率可能会增加。为了研究大规模疫苗接种可能带来的负面后果及其程度，我们在芬兰人群中建立了水痘和带状疱疹流行病学的数学模型。该模型基于水痘感染的血清学数据、带状疱疹的病例报告数据，以及有关感染传播的密切接触的新知识。分析表明，未来 50 年内，儿童水痘疫苗接种计划将使带状疱疹的发病率增加 1 至 2/3 以上。这将归因于 35 岁年龄组病例数的增加。然而，高疫苗覆盖率和两剂疫苗接种计划将非常有效地阻止水痘在人群中的传播。
