Thompson William W, Moore Matthew R, Weintraub Eric, Cheng Po-Yung, Jin Xiaoping, Bridges Carolyn B, Bresee Joseph S, Shay David K
Influenza Division, National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, MS A32, 1600 Clifton Rd NE, Atlanta, GA 30333, USA.
Am J Public Health. 2009 Oct;99 Suppl 2(Suppl 2):S225-30. doi: 10.2105/AJPH.2008.151944.
Most estimates of US deaths associated with influenza circulation have been similar despite the use of different approaches. However, a recently published estimate suggested that previous estimates substantially overestimated deaths associated with influenza, and concluded that substantial numbers of deaths during a future pandemic could be prevented because of improvements in medical care. We reviewed the data sources and methods used to estimate influenza-associated deaths. We suggest that discrepancies between the recent estimate and previous estimates of the number of influenza-associated deaths are attributable primarily to the use of different outcomes and methods. We also believe that secondary bacterial infections will likely result in substantial morbidity and mortality during a future influenza pandemic, despite medical progress.
尽管采用了不同的方法，但对美国与流感传播相关的死亡人数的大多数估计结果都相近。然而，最近发表的一项估计表明，先前的估计大幅高估了与流感相关的死亡人数，并得出结论称，由于医疗护理的改善，未来大流行期间的大量死亡是可以预防的。我们回顾了用于估计流感相关死亡人数的数据来源和方法。我们认为，近期估计与先前对流感相关死亡人数估计之间的差异主要归因于所采用的不同结果和方法。我们还认为，尽管医疗有所进步，但继发性细菌感染在未来流感大流行期间可能仍会导致大量发病和死亡。
