Ecole Polytechnique de Montréal, Montréal, Canada.
Accid Anal Prev. 2009 Nov;41(6):1192-8. doi: 10.1016/j.aap.2008.05.010. Epub 2008 Jun 23.
Road selection for hazardous materials transportation relies heavily on risk analysis. With risk being generally expressed as a product of the probability of occurrence and the expected consequence, one will understand that risk analysis is data intensive. However, various authors have noticed the lack of statistical reliability of hazmat accident databases due to the systematic underreporting of such events. Also, official accident databases alone are not always providing all the information required (economical impact, road conditions, etc.). In this paper, we attempt to integrate many data sources to analyze hazmat accidents in the province of Quebec, Canada. Databases on dangerous goods accidents, road accidents and work accidents were cross-analyzed. Results show that accidents can hardly be matched and that these databases suffer from underreporting. Police records seem to have better coverage than official records maintained by hazmat authorities. Serious accidents are missing from government's official databases (some involving deaths or major spills) even though their declaration is mandatory.
危险品运输的道路选择很大程度上依赖于风险分析。由于风险通常表示为发生概率和预期后果的乘积，因此可以理解风险分析是数据密集型的。然而，由于此类事件的系统性漏报，各种作者已经注意到危险品事故数据库缺乏统计可靠性。此外，官方事故数据库并不总是提供所需的所有信息（经济影响、道路状况等）。在本文中，我们试图整合多个数据源来分析加拿大魁北克省的危险品事故。危险品事故、道路事故和工作事故数据库进行了交叉分析。结果表明，事故几乎无法匹配，并且这些数据库存在漏报现象。警方记录的覆盖面似乎比危险品管理机构保存的官方记录要好。政府的官方数据库中缺少严重事故（其中一些涉及死亡或重大溢漏），尽管这些事故的申报是强制性的。
