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探讨导致中国危险物品运输事故严重程度的风险因素。

Exploring Risk Factors Contributing to the Severity of Hazardous Material Transportation Accidents in China.

机构信息

College of Transportation Engineering, Tongji University, Key Laboratory of Road and Traffic Engineering of the State Ministry of Education, Shanghai Key Laboratory of Rail Infrastructure Durability and System Safety, Shanghai 201804, China.

School of Transport & Communications, Shanghai Maritime University, 1550 Haigang Street, Shanghai 201306, China.

出版信息

Int J Environ Res Public Health. 2020 Feb 19;17(4):1344. doi: 10.3390/ijerph17041344.

Abstract

With the increasing demand of hazardous material (Hazmat), traffic accidents occurred frequently during Hazmat transportation, which had caused widespread concern in communities. Therefore, a good understanding of Hazmat transportation accident characteristics and contributing factors is of practical importance. In this study, 1721 Hazmat accidents that have occurred during road transportation for the period 2014-2017 in China were examined, and a random-parameters ordered probit model was established to explore the influence of contributing factors on the severity of accidents by accounting for unobserved heterogeneity in the data. Both the injuries and the number of people evacuated were considered as the indicator of accident severity and investigated, respectively. Results show that higher injury severity is likely to be associated with type of Hazmat (compressed gas, explosive, and poison), misoperation, driver fatigue, speeding, tunnel, slope, county road, dry road surface, winter, dark, more than two vehicles, rear end crash, and explosion. As for the correlation between risk factors and the severity of evacuation, type of Hazmat (compressed gas, explosive, and poison), quantity of Hazmat (10-39 t), misoperation, county road, dry road surface, weekdays, dusk, explosion significantly contribute to increasing the severity of evacuation of Hazmat accidents.

摘要

随着危险物质(Hazmat)需求的增加,Hazmat 运输过程中交通事故频繁发生,这在社区中引起了广泛关注。因此,很好地了解 Hazmat 运输事故的特点和影响因素具有实际意义。在这项研究中,研究人员对 2014-2017 年期间中国道路运输中发生的 1721 起 Hazmat 事故进行了检查,并建立了一个随机参数有序概率模型,通过考虑数据中的未观察到的异质性,探讨了影响因素对事故严重程度的影响。研究人员分别考虑了伤害和疏散人数作为事故严重程度的指标,并进行了调查。结果表明,更高的伤害严重程度可能与 Hazmat 类型(压缩气体、爆炸物和毒药)、操作失误、驾驶员疲劳、超速、隧道、坡度、县级道路、干燥路面、冬季、黑暗、两辆车以上、追尾事故和爆炸有关。至于风险因素与疏散严重程度之间的相关性,Hazmat 类型(压缩气体、爆炸物和毒药)、Hazmat 数量(10-39 吨)、操作失误、县级道路、干燥路面、工作日、黄昏和爆炸都会显著增加 Hazmat 事故的疏散严重程度。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/fa10/7068398/3862ae64a204/ijerph-17-01344-g001.jpg

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