Kurtzke J F, Murphy F M, Smith M A
Neuroepidemiology Research Program, Veterans Affairs Medical Center, Washington, DC 20422.
Neurology. 1991 Jan;41(1):1-9. doi: 10.1212/wnl.41.1.1.
Based primarily on a survey of all neurology residency training programs in the United States conducted in 1985-1986, the average annual production (incidence) of general neurologists for 1980-1986 was 363.6 and of child neurologists for 1982-1986, 53.8. About 1/4 of these general neurologists and 1/3 of child neurologists are women; about 1/4 of either are foreign medical graduates, predominantly foreign-born. Data routinely published by the AMA well match the questionnaire information. First postgraduate year of training was in internal medicine for 2/3 of general neurologists. Board certification have recently averaged 290.9 (general) and 37.1 (child) per annum. From life-table calculations, prevalence of general neurologists in 1990 is estimated at 7,500 fully-trained and 5,500 board-certified, and of child neurologists near 1,100 trained and over 600 certified. The number of neurologists is predicted to plateau near the year 2020 at some 13,700 trained, including 1,700 child neurologists, and 9,800 certified (1,100 child). The maximal prevalence rate for all neurologists will be 4.75 per 100,000 population in 2010, declining then to 4.42 by 2050; those rates provide shortfalls of 30% and 35%, respectively, compared with previously calculated needs for neurologists.
主要基于1985 - 1986年对美国所有神经科住院医师培训项目的一项调查，1980 - 1986年普通神经科医生的年平均产量（发病率）为363.6，1982 - 1986年儿童神经科医生的年平均产量为53.8。这些普通神经科医生中约四分之一、儿童神经科医生中约三分之一是女性；其中约四分之一是外国医学毕业生，主要是在国外出生的。美国医学协会定期公布的数据与问卷调查信息非常吻合。三分之二的普通神经科医生的住院医师培训第一年是在内科。近年来，普通神经科医生和儿童神经科医生的委员会认证平均每年分别为290.9人和37.1人。根据生命表计算，预计1990年普通神经科医生的患病率为7500名完全培训合格者和5500名获得委员会认证者，儿童神经科医生的患病率接近1100名培训合格者和600多名获得认证者。预计到2020年左右，神经科医生数量将趋于平稳，约有13700名培训合格者，其中包括1700名儿童神经科医生，9800名获得认证者（1100名儿童神经科医生）。2010年所有神经科医生的最高患病率将为每10万人4.75人，到2050年降至4.42人；与之前计算的神经科医生需求相比，这些患病率分别短缺30%和35%。
